Background: Existing evidence for the prospective association of vitamin D status with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is focused almost exclusively on circulating total 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] without distinction between its subtypes: nonepimeric and epimeric 25(OH)D₃ stereoisomers, and 25(OH)D₂, the minor component of 25(OH)D. We aimed to investigate the prospective associations of circulating levels of the sum and each of these three metabolites with incident T2D.

Methods: This analysis in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)–InterAct case-cohort study for T2D included 9671 incident T2D cases and 13,562 subcohort members. Plasma vitamin D metabolites were quantified by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry. We used a multivariable Prentice-weighted Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of T2D for each metabolite. Analyses were performed separately within country, and estimates were combined across countries using random-effects meta-analysis.

Results: The mean concentrations (SD) of total 25(OH)D, nonepimeric 25(OH)D₃, epimeric 25(OH)D₃, and 25(OH)D₂ were 41.1 (17.2), 40.7 (17.3), 2.13 (1.31), and 8.16 (6.52) nmol/L, respectively. Plasma total 25(OH)D and nonepimeric 25(OH)D₃ were inversely associated with incident T2D [multivariable-adjusted HR per 1 SD = 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77, 0.86) for both variables], whereas epimeric 25(OH)D₃ was positively associated [per 1 SD HR = 1.16 (1.09, 1.25)]. There was no statistically significant association with T2D for 25(OH)D₂ [per 1 SD HR = 0.94 (0.76, 1.18)].

Conclusions: Plasma nonepimeric 25(OH)D₃ was inversely associated with incident T2D, consistent with it being the major metabolite contributing to total 25(OH)D. The positive association of the epimeric form of 25(OH)D₃ with incident T2D provides novel information to assess the biological relevance of vitamin D epimerization and vitamin D subtypes in diabetes etiology.

Aims/hypothesis: Type 1 and type 2 diabetes differ with respect to pathophysiological factors such as beta cell function, insulin resistance and phenotypic appearance, but there may be overlap between the two forms of diabetes. However, there are relatively few prospective studies that have characterised the relationship between autoimmunity and incident diabetes. We investigated associations of antibodies against the 65 kDa isoform of GAD (GAD65) with type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes genetic risk scores and incident diabetes in adults in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct, a case-cohort study nested in the EPIC cohort.

Methods: GAD65 antibodies were analysed in EPIC participants (over 40 years of age and free of known diabetes at baseline) by radioligand binding assay in a random subcohort (n = 15,802) and in incident diabetes cases (n = 11,981). Type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes genetic risk scores were calculated. Associations between GAD65 antibodies and incident diabetes were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression.

Results: GAD65 antibody positivity at baseline was associated with development of diabetes during a median follow-up time of 10.9 years (HR for GAD65 antibody positive vs negative 1.78; 95% CI 1.43, 2.20) after adjustment for sex, centre, physical activity, smoking status and education. The genetic risk score for type 1 diabetes but not type 2 diabetes was associated with GAD65 antibody positivity in both the subcohort (OR per SD genetic risk 1.24; 95% CI 1.03, 1.50) and incident cases (OR 1.97; 95% CI 1.72, 2.26) after adjusting for age and sex. The risk of incident diabetes in those in the top tertile of the type 1 diabetes genetic risk score who were also GAD65 antibody positive was 3.23 (95% CI 2.10, 4.97) compared with all other individuals, suggesting that 1.8% of incident diabetes in adults was attributable to this combination of risk factors.

Conclusions/interpretation: Our study indicates that incident diabetes in adults has an element of autoimmune aetiology. Thus, there might be a reason to re-evaluate the present subclassification of diabetes in adulthood.

BACKGROUND: Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have been associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D), but causality is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE: Within longitudinal population-based data from northern Sweden, we assessed how POPs associated with T2D prospectively and cross-sectionally, and further investigated factors related to individual changes in POP concentrations.

METHODS: For 129 case-controls pairs matched by age, sex and date of sampling, plasma concentrations of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), dichlorodiphenyl-dichloroethylene (p,p'-DDE), dioxin-like (DL) polychlorinated biphenyl congeners (PCB-118 and PCB-156), and non-dioxin like (NDL-PCB: PCB-74, -99, -138 -153, -170, -180, -183 and PCB-187) were analyzed twice (baseline and follow-up, 9-20 years apart). The cases received their T2D diagnose between baseline and follow-up. Prospective (using baseline data) and cross-sectional (using follow-up data) odds ratios (ORs) for T2D on lipid standardized POPs (HCB, p,p'-DDE, ∑DL-PCBs, ∑NDL-PCBs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression, adjusting for body mass index (BMI) and plasma lipids. The influence of BMI, weight-change, and plasma lipids on longitudinal changes in POP concentrations were evaluated among non-diabetic individuals (n = 306).

RESULTS: POPs were associated with T2D in both the prospective and cross-sectional assessments. Of a standard deviation increase in POPs, prospective ORs ranged 1.42 (95% CI: 0.99, 2.06) for ∑NDL-PCBs to 1.55 (95% CI: 1.01, 2.38) for HCB (p < 0.05 only for HCB), and cross-sectional ORs ranged 1.62 (95% CI: 1.13; 2.32) for p,p'-DDE to 2.06 (95% CI: 1.29, 3.28) for ∑DL-PCBs (p < 0.05 for all POPs). In analyses of non-diabetic individuals, higher baseline BMI, decreased weight and decreased plasma lipid concentrations were associated with a slower decrease of POPs. Cases had, besides a higher BMI, reduced cholesterol and weight gain at follow-up compared to controls, which can explain the higher ORs in the cross-sectional assessments.

DISCUSSION: The association between POPs and T2D was confirmed, but an indication that individuals body fat history might influence POP-T2D associations weakens the epidemiological support for a causal association. It also warrants studies based on other exposure metrics than biomonitoring. In addition, we note that a cross-sectional design overestimates the ORs if T2D cases have successfully intervened on weight and/or blood lipids, as changes in these factors cause changes in POPs.

OBJECTIVE To estimate the causal association between intake of dairy products and incident type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The analysis included 21,820 European individuals (9,686 diabetes cases) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study. Participants were genotyped, and rs4988235 (LCT-12910C>T), a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) for lactase persistence (LP) that enables digestion of dairy sugar, i.e., lactose, was imputed. Baseline dietary intakes were assessed with diet questionnaires. We investigated the associations between imputed SNP dosage for rs4988235 and intake of dairy products and other foods through linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) estimates for the milk-diabetes relationship were obtained through a two-stage least squares regression.

RESULTS Each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk (β 17.1 g/day, 95% CI 10.6–23.6) and milk beverages (β 2.8 g/day, 95% CI 1.0–4.5) but not with intake of other dairy products. Other dietary intakes associated with rs4988235 included fruits (β −7.0 g/day, 95% CI −12.4 to −1.7 per additional LP allele), nonalcoholic beverages (β −18.0 g/day, 95% CI −34.4 to −1.6), and wine (β −4.8 g/day, 95% CI −9.1 to −0.6). In instrumental variable analysis, LP-associated milk intake was not associated with diabetes (hazard ratio_{per 15 g/day} 0.99, 95% CI 0.93–1.05).

CONCLUSIONS rs4988235 was associated with milk intake but not with intake of other dairy products. This MR study does not suggest that milk intake is associated with diabetes, which is consistent with previous observational and genetic associations. LP may be associated with intake of other foods as well, but owing to the modest associations, we consider it unlikely that this caused the observed null result.

Introduction: Beverage consumption is a modifiable risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), but there is insufficient evidence to inform the suitability of substituting 1 type of beverage for another.

Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of T2D when consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) was replaced with consumption of fruit juice, milk, coffee, or tea.

Methods: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)–InterAct case–cohort study of 8 European countries (n = 27,662, with 12,333 cases of incident T2D, 1992–2007), beverage consumption was estimated at baseline by dietary questionnaires. Using Prentice-weighted Cox regression adjusting for other beverages and potential confounders, we estimated associations of substituting 1 type of beverage for another on incident T2D.

Results: Mean ± SD of estimated consumption of SSB was 55 ± 105 g/d. Means ± SDs for the other beverages were as follows: fruit juice, 59 ± 101 g/d; milk, 209 ± 203 g/d; coffee, 381 ± 372 g/d; and tea, 152 ± 282 g/d. Substituting coffee for SSBs by 250 g/d was associated with a 21% lower incidence of T2D (95% CI: 12%, 29%). The rate difference was −12.0 (95% CI: −20.0, −5.0) per 10,000 person-years among adults consuming SSBs ≥250 g/d (absolute rate = 48.3/10,000). Substituting tea for SSBs was estimated to lower T2D incidence by 22% (95% CI: 15%, 28%) or −11.0 (95% CI: −20.0, −2.6) per 10,000 person-years, whereas substituting fruit juice or milk was estimated not to alter T2D risk significantly.

Conclusions: These findings indicate a potential benefit of substituting coffee or tea for SSBs for the primary prevention of T2D and may help formulate public health recommendations on beverage consumption in different populations.

Background: Population-specificity of exploratory dietary patterns limits their generalizability in investigations with type 2 diabetes incidence.

Objective: The aim of this study was to derive country-specific exploratory dietary patterns, investigate their association with type 2 diabetes incidence, and replicate diabetes-associated dietary patterns in other countries.

Methods: Dietary intake data were used, assessed by country-specific questionnaires at baseline of 11,183 incident diabetes cases and 14,694 subcohort members (mean age 52.9 y) from 8 countries, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study (mean follow-up time 6.9 y). Exploratory dietary patterns were derived by principal component analysis. HRs for incident type 2 diabetes were calculated by Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models. Diabetes-associated dietary patterns were simplified or replicated to be applicable in other countries. A meta-analysis across all countries evaluated the generalizability of the diabetes-association.

Results: Two dietary patterns per country/UK-center, of which overall 3 dietary patterns were diabetes-associated, were identified. A risk-lowering French dietary pattern was not confirmed across other countries: pooled HR_France per 1 SD: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.10. Risk-increasing dietary patterns, derived in Spain and UK-Norfolk, were confirmed, but only the latter statistically significantly: HR_Spain: 1.09; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.22 and HR_UK-Norfolk: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.20. Respectively, this dietary pattern was characterized by relatively high intakes of potatoes, processed meat, vegetable oils, sugar, cake and cookies, and tea.

Conclusions: Only few country/center-specific dietary patterns (3 of 18) were statistically significantly associated with diabetes incidence in this multicountry European study population. One pattern, whose association with diabetes was confirmed across other countries, showed overlaps in the food groups potatoes and processed meat with identified diabetes-associated dietary patterns from other studies. The study demonstrates that replication of associations of exploratory patterns with health outcomes is feasible and a necessary step to overcome population-specificity in associations from such analyses.

BACKGROUND: There is conflicting evidence regarding the association between fish intake and type 2 diabetes (T2D) incidence, possibly owing to measurement errors in self-reported intake and coexposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) present in fish.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify plasma metabolites associated with fish intake and to assess their association with T2D risk, independently of POPs, in Swedish adults.

METHODS: In a case-control study nested in the Swedish Västerbotten Intervention Programme, fasting plasma samples from 421 matched T2D case-control pairs of men and women aged 30-60 y at baseline and 10-y follow-up samples from a subset of 149 pairs were analyzed using untargeted metabolomics. Moreover, 16 plasma POPs were analyzed for the 149 pairs who had repeated samples available. Fish-related plasma metabolites were identified using multivariate modelling and partial correlation analysis. Reproducibility of metabolites and metabolite patterns, derived via principal component analysis (PCA), was assessed by intraclass correlation. A unique component of metabolites unrelated to POPs was dissected by integrating metabolites and POPs using 2-way orthogonal partial least squares regression. ORs of T2D were estimated using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS: We identified 31 metabolites associated with fish intake that had poor to good reproducibility. A PCA-derived metabolite pattern strongly correlated with fish intake (ρ = 0.37, P < 0.001) but showed no association with T2D risk. Integrating fish-related metabolites and POPs led to a unique metabolite component independent of POPs, which tended to be inversely associated with T2D risk (OR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.54, 1.02, P = 0.07). This component mainly consisted of metabolites reflecting fatty fish intake.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that fatty fish intake may be beneficial for T2D prevention, after removing the counteractive effects of coexposure to POPs in Swedish adults. Integrating metabolite markers and POP exposures appears a promising approach to advance the understanding of associations between fish intake and T2D incidence.

Smoking is a major heritable and modifiable risk factor for many diseases, including cancer, common respiratory disorders and cardiovascular diseases. Fourteen genetic loci have previously been associated with smoking behaviour-related traits. We tested up to 235,116 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) on the exome-array for association with smoking initiation, cigarettes per day, pack-years, and smoking cessation in a fixed effects meta-analysis of up to 61 studies (up to 346,813 participants). In a subset of 112,811 participants, a further one million SNVs were also genotyped and tested for association with the four smoking behaviour traits. SNV-trait associations with P < 5 × 10^-8 in either analysis were taken forward for replication in up to 275,596 independent participants from UK Biobank. Lastly, a meta-analysis of the discovery and replication studies was performed. Sixteen SNVs were associated with at least one of the smoking behaviour traits (P < 5 × 10^-8) in the discovery samples. Ten novel SNVs, including rs12616219 near TMEM182, were followed-up and five of them (rs462779 in REV3L, rs12780116 in CNNM2, rs1190736 in GPR101, rs11539157 in PJA1, and rs12616219 near TMEM182) replicated at a Bonferroni significance threshold (P < 4.5 × 10^-3) with consistent direction of effect. A further 35 SNVs were associated with smoking behaviour traits in the discovery plus replication meta-analysis (up to 622,409 participants) including a rare SNV, rs150493199, in CCDC141 and two low-frequency SNVs in CEP350 and HDGFRP2. Functional follow-up implied that decreased expression of REV3L may lower the probability of smoking initiation. The novel loci will facilitate understanding the genetic aetiology of smoking behaviour and may lead to the identification of potential drug targets for smoking prevention and/or cessation.

Background: Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have drawn much attention due to bioaccumulation potential and their current omnipresence in human blood. We assessed whether plasma PFAS, suspected to induce endocrine-disrupting effects, were prospectively associated with clinical type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk.

Methods: We established a nested case-control study within the Swedish prospective population-based Västerbotten Intervention Programme cohort. Several PFAS were measured in plasma from a subset of 124 case-control pairs at baseline (during 1990–2003) and at 10-year follow-up. T2D cases were matched (1:1) according to gender, age and sample date with participants without T2D (controls).

Conditional logistic regressions were used to prospectively assess risk of T2D by baseline PFAS plasma concentrations. Associations between long-term PFAS plasma levels (mean of baseline and follow-up) and insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR) and beta-cell function (HOMA2-B%) at follow-up were prospectively explored among 178 and 181 controls, respectively, by multivariable linear regressions.

Results: After adjusting for gender, age, sample year, diet and body mass index, the odds ratio of T2D for the sum of PFAS (Σ z-score PFAS) was 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.20, 1.36), comparing third with first tertile; and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.00) per one standard deviation increment of sum of log-transformed PFAS. Among the controls, the adjusted β of HOMA2-IR and HOMA-B% for the sum of PFAS were −0.26 (95% CI: −0.52, −0.01) and −9.61 (95% CI: −22.60, 3.39) respectively comparing third with first tertile.

Conclusions: This prospective nested case-control study yielded overall inverse associations between individual PFAS and risk of T2D, although mostly non-significant. Among participants without T2D, long-term PFAS exposure was prospectively associated with lower insulin resistance.

Aims: To investigate whether the N‐terminal truncated glutamic acid decarboxylase 65 (GAD65) isoform is as well recognized by people with stiff person syndrome as it is by people with Type 1 diabetes, and whether conformational GAD65 antibody epitopes are displayed properly by the isoform.

Methods: GAD65 antibody‐positive healthy individuals (n=13), people with stiff‐person syndrome (n=15) and children with new‐onset Type 1 diabetes (n=654) were analysed to determine binding to full‐length GAD65 and the N‐terminal truncated GAD65 isoform in each of these settings. GAD65 autoantibody epitope specificity was correlated with binding ratios of full‐length GAD65/N‐terminal truncated GAD65.

Results: The N‐terminal truncated GAD65 isoform was significantly less recognized in GAD65Ab‐positive people with stiff‐person syndrome (P=0.002) and in healthy individuals (P=0.0001) than in people with Type 1 diabetes. Moreover, at least two specific conformational GAD65Ab epitopes were not, or were only partially, presented by the N‐terminal truncated GAD65 isoform compared to full‐length GAD65. Finally, an N‐terminal conformational GAD65Ab epitope was significantly less recognized in DQ8/8 positive individuals with Type 1 diabetes (P=0.02).

Conclusions: In people with stiff person syndrome preferred binding to the full‐length GAD65 isoform over the N‐terminal truncated molecule was observed. This binding characteristic is probably attributable to reduced presentation of two conformational epitopes by the N‐terminal truncated molecule. These findings support the notion of disease‐specific GAD65Ab epitope specificities and emphasize the need to evaluate the applicability of novel assays for different medical conditions.