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Walther, D., Hellström, J. & Bergman, T. (2019). Government instability and the state. Political Science Research and Methods, 7(3), 579-594
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Government instability and the state
2019 (English)In: Political Science Research and Methods, ISSN 2049-8470, E-ISSN 2049-8489, Vol. 7, no 3, p. 579-594Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Government instability (cabinet duration) is an important feature of parliamentary democracy. Over time, the research on cabinet duration has improved in technical and theoretical sophistication. However, we note that little attention has been paid to the relationship between governments and the state itself. Our main hypothesis is that state capacity, e.g., factors such as state bureaucratic effectiveness and law and order, shape how easy it is for governments to implement the new policy and thus how well they can achieve policy objectives. We also argue that when state capacity is low, the ability to adequately respond to external shocks goes down, and instability increases. When testing this empirically we find that low state capacity does indeed help us predict an increased risk for early termination—in particular, whether the government ends through a replacement (but not by an early election). Using interaction effects, we also demonstrate that the effect of external shocks, such as an increase in unemployment, is conditional on state capacity. An increase in unemployment only has a significant effect on cabinet stability when state capacity is low, suggesting that the cabinet’s (in)ability to address the economic problems is an important factor for understating cabinet durability.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge University Press, 2019
National Category
Political Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-133426 (URN)10.1017/psrm.2018.20 (DOI)000472096700011 ()
Funder
Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation
Note

Previously published in thesis in manuscript form.

Available from: 2017-04-10 Created: 2017-04-10 Last updated: 2019-07-12Bibliographically approved
Hellström, J. & Walther, D. (2019). Governmental participation and alliances of liberal parties in Europe. In: Caroline Close, Emilie van Haute (Ed.), Liberal parties in Europe: (pp. 310-325). Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Governmental participation and alliances of liberal parties in Europe
2019 (English)In: Liberal parties in Europe / [ed] Caroline Close, Emilie van Haute, Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge, 2019, p. 310-325Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

When do Liberal parties get into government, and under which circumstances? With which partners do they generally form government? When getting into office, which ministerial portfolios do they usually obtain? In most European democracies, Liberal parties are represented in parliament and have been in office at some point in time. They also seem to have an above-average ability to secure a place in government and to obtain ministerial portfolios. This chapter takes a comparative approach and examines the patterns of government participation among Liberal parties, and their success in getting both the Prime Ministership and other important ministerial portfolios.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge, 2019
Series
Party Families in Europe ; 3
Keywords
Liberal parties, government, government participation, coalitions, ministerial portfolios, alliancies
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
political science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-156665 (URN)10.4324/9781351245500 (DOI)9780815372387 (ISBN)9781351245500 (ISBN)
Projects
Representative democracy in Europe
Funder
Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation, MMW 2011.0030
Available from: 2019-02-22 Created: 2019-02-22 Last updated: 2019-04-17Bibliographically approved
Hellström, J. & Walther, D. (2019). How is Government Stability Affected by the State of the Economy?: Payoff Structures, Government Type and Economic State. Government and Opposition, 54(2), 280-308
Open this publication in new window or tab >>How is Government Stability Affected by the State of the Economy?: Payoff Structures, Government Type and Economic State
2019 (English)In: Government and Opposition, ISSN 0017-257X, E-ISSN 1477-7053, Vol. 54, no 2, p. 280-308Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To what extent are incumbent governments affected by the state of the economy when it comes to premature dissolution? This article investigates this research question using a data set on parties and governments for 18 West European countries for the period 1945–2013. In addition to investigating the general effect of the state of the economy on government termination, we hypothesize that macroeconomic conditions affect cabinet termination in different ways depending on the type of government that is in power. Using Cox proportional hazards models to estimate how different government types are impacted by the same changes in the economy, our results indicate that economic changes do matter, but that they mainly affect coalition governments. Our results also indicate that there is a difference between minority and majority governments when it comes to the type of termination. Minority coalition governments resolve to early elections, not replacements, presumably because a minority government does not survive defection. Majority coalition governments, in contrast, show sensitivity towards both types of terminations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge University Press, 2019
Keywords
government dissolution, coalitions, economy, cabinet duration, Western Europe
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
political science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-133427 (URN)10.1017/gov.2017.21 (DOI)000459785600004 ()
Projects
Representative Democracy in Europe
Funder
Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation, MMW 2011.0030
Note

Originally included in thesis in accepted form with title: How is government termination affected by the state of economy? Payoff structures, type of government and economic changes

Available from: 2017-04-10 Created: 2017-04-10 Last updated: 2019-03-27Bibliographically approved
Lindahl, J., Hellström, J. & Bäck, H. (2019). Sweden: Minority government as the norm (1ed.). In: Matt Evans (Ed.), Coalition Government as a Reflection of a Nation’s Politics and Society: A Comparative Study of Parliamentary Parties and Cabinets in 12 Countries (pp. 127-146). London & New York: Routledge
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Sweden: Minority government as the norm
2019 (English)In: Coalition Government as a Reflection of a Nation’s Politics and Society: A Comparative Study of Parliamentary Parties and Cabinets in 12 Countries / [ed] Matt Evans, London & New York: Routledge, 2019, 1, p. 127-146Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Swedish coalition politics is markedly influenced both by a historically strong emphasis on near-unidimensional political conflict along the left-right economic dimension, the once-dominant position of the Social Democrats, and a negative parliamentarism system. These factors have contributed to most governments formed during the post-World War Two period comprising a minority of seats in parliament. Often, governments have been single-party Social Democrat cabinets, who have relied on support from one or more parties outside government. Swedish politics has long been characterized by “bloc politics”, where the socialist and the non-socialist bloc have competed for power. However, with the entry and growth of the populist radical-right party, the Sweden Democrats, the future of bloc politics has become more uncertain. Consequently, after the 2018 election, the formation of a centre-left, red-green government required drawn-out negotiations across and within the two blocs in order to obtain the necessary support of several non-socialist parties.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London & New York: Routledge, 2019 Edition: 1
Series
Routledge Research in Comparative Politics
Keywords
sweden, party politics, coalition government
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
political science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-165252 (URN)9781138392113 (ISBN)9780429422379 (ISBN)
Available from: 2019-11-20 Created: 2019-11-20 Last updated: 2019-11-20
Walther, D. & Hellström, J. (2019). The verdict in the polls: how government stability is affected by popular support. West European Politics, 42(3), 593-617
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The verdict in the polls: how government stability is affected by popular support
2019 (English)In: West European Politics, ISSN 0140-2382, E-ISSN 1743-9655, Vol. 42, no 3, p. 593-617Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The idea that the stability of governments is affected by how they are performing in the polls is both intuitive and popular in the literature. When support is low the government might be inclined to replace parties or the prime minister in order to regain support, thus forming a replacement government. Alternatively, a government doing well in the polls might opportunistically try to schedule an early election to capitalise on its favourable prospects. But despite the popularity of the idea, it has thus far not been tested empirically whether government stability is in fact influenced by popular support. This article aims to address this lacuna. Using a relatively new dataset with more than 12,000 unique polls, and recently developed Bayesian models for pooling the polls, it is here shown that government stability is in fact impacted by popular support. Governments display clear signs of electoral opportunism when they are polling well and, conversely, dissolve the government, without calling an election, when polling is bad. The results are strongest when there are few parties in the government, since agreement on the timing for a discretionary termination is easier when fewer players need to agree.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2019
Keywords
Government stability, polling, party behaviour, comparative politics, early elections, Bayesian estimation
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-133428 (URN)10.1080/01402382.2018.1490598 (DOI)000457984400008 ()
Funder
Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation, MMW 2011.0030
Note

Early version originally included in thesis in manuscript form.

Available from: 2017-04-10 Created: 2017-04-10 Last updated: 2019-03-18Bibliographically approved
Bäck, H. & Hellström, J. (2018). Kris i regeringsfrågan?. In: Katarina Barrling och Sören Holmberg (Ed.), Demokratins framtid: (pp. 269-297). Stockholm: Sveriges riksdag
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Kris i regeringsfrågan?
2018 (Swedish)In: Demokratins framtid / [ed] Katarina Barrling och Sören Holmberg, Stockholm: Sveriges riksdag , 2018, p. 269-297Chapter in book (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Sveriges riksdag, 2018
Keywords
Sverige, Regeringsbildning, Regeringsstabilitet, Representativ demokrati, Västeuropa
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
political science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-154484 (URN)978-91-88607-64-5 (ISBN)
Projects
Party Government in Europe DatabaseRepresentative Democracy in Europe
Funder
Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation, MMW 2011.0030Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, IN150306:1
Available from: 2018-12-19 Created: 2018-12-19 Last updated: 2018-12-20Bibliographically approved
Bergman, T., Hellström, J. & Sandström, C. (2018). Regeringsbildningen efter riksdagsvalet 2018. In: Lars Nord, Marie Grusell, Niklas Bolin & Kajsa Falasca (Ed.), Snabbtänkt: reflektioner från valet 2018 av ledande forskare (pp. 21-22). Sundsvall: DEMICOM, Mittuniversitetet
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Regeringsbildningen efter riksdagsvalet 2018
2018 (Swedish)In: Snabbtänkt: reflektioner från valet 2018 av ledande forskare / [ed] Lars Nord, Marie Grusell, Niklas Bolin & Kajsa Falasca, Sundsvall: DEMICOM, Mittuniversitetet , 2018, p. 21-22Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: DEMICOM, Mittuniversitetet, 2018
Series
DEMICOM-rapport ; 38
Keywords
Regeringsbildning, riksdagsvalet 2018, partier, partipositioner, valmanifest, medieanalys
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
political science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-153291 (URN)978-91-88025-99-9 (ISBN)
Available from: 2018-11-16 Created: 2018-11-16 Last updated: 2018-11-20Bibliographically approved
Hellström, J. & Blomgren, M. (2016). Party debate over Europe in national election campaigns: electoral disunityand party cohesion. European Journal of Political Research, 55(2), 265-282
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Party debate over Europe in national election campaigns: electoral disunityand party cohesion
2016 (English)In: European Journal of Political Research, ISSN 0304-4130, E-ISSN 1475-6765, Vol. 55, no 2, p. 265-282Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Few political parties are willing to lead the public debate on how the European Union should develop and parties rarely publicly discuss issues on the EU agenda. This is probably one of the most important democratic problems in the contemporary EU. When and why parties are willing (or not willing) to discuss European cooperation is therefore an essential issue in which political science should engage. Previous research has shown that parties that are internally divided on EU issues downplay these issues in order to avoid internal disputes. At the same time, parties that have severe intraparty conflicts over the issue are unable to contain the debate. Thus, parties that are unified in their position on EU issues and parties that are heavily split speak about the EU, but others do not. Also, earlier research has shown that political parties downplay issues in response to internal divisions among their supporters. It is argued in this article that the focus should not be solely on intraparty conflict or whether or not a party's voters are hesitant or disunited, but rather on how these factors interact in order to better understand how parties act strategically regarding EU issues. Using a new dataset that relies on quantitative content analysis of quality newspapers during the national election campaigns in the period 1983–2010 in France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Sweden, it is found that parties that have a high degree of internal dissent on European issues, while at the same time having an equally divided electorate, are the parties that are most present in the public debate. Hence, it is the interaction between these two important factors that explains much of the variation in the amount of attention paid to European issues in national election campaigns.

Keywords
European issues, intraparty dissent, salience, political parties, voter opinions
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
political science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-112708 (URN)10.1111/1475-6765.12125 (DOI)000374507300004 ()
Projects
Representative Democracy in EuropeThe Politicization of Europe - A comparative study of six West European countries, 1970-2010
Funder
Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation, MMW 2011.003German Research Foundation (DFG)
Available from: 2015-12-14 Created: 2015-12-14 Last updated: 2018-06-07Bibliographically approved
Dolezal, M. & Hellström, J. (2016). The radical right as drivning force in the electoral arena?. In: Swen Hutter, Edgar Grande, Hanspeter Kriesi (Ed.), Politicising Europe: integration and mass politics (pp. 156-180). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The radical right as drivning force in the electoral arena?
2016 (English)In: Politicising Europe: integration and mass politics / [ed] Swen Hutter, Edgar Grande, Hanspeter Kriesi, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016, p. 156-180Chapter in book (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
political science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-124748 (URN)9781107568303 (ISBN)9781107129412 (ISBN)
Projects
The Politicization of Europe - A comparative study of six West European countries, 1970-2010Representative Democracy in Europe
Funder
German Research Foundation (DFG)Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation
Available from: 2016-08-23 Created: 2016-08-23 Last updated: 2018-06-07Bibliographically approved
Hellström, J. (2015). Blaming Europe?: Responsibility Without Accountability in the European Union [Review]. West European Politics, 38(3), 741-742
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Blaming Europe?: Responsibility Without Accountability in the European Union
2015 (English)In: West European Politics, ISSN 0140-2382, E-ISSN 1743-9655, Vol. 38, no 3, p. 741-742Article, book review (Other academic) Published
National Category
Political Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-100941 (URN)10.1080/01402382.2015.1008831 (DOI)000349899400001 ()
Available from: 2015-03-20 Created: 2015-03-16 Last updated: 2018-06-07Bibliographically approved
Projects
Party Government in Europe Database [IN15-0306:1_RJ]; Umeå University
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-6613-4242

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