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Objectives: To assess completeness and accuracy of the family folder in terms of capturing community-level health data.

Study design: A capture–recapture method was applied in six randomly selected districts of Tigray Region, Ethiopia.

Participants: Child health data, abstracted from randomly selected 24 073 family folders from 99 health posts, were compared with similar data recaptured through household survey and routine health information made by these health posts.

Primary and secondary outcome measures: Completeness and accuracy of the family folder data; and coverage selected child health indicators, respectively.

Results: Demographic data captured by the family folders and household survey were highly concordant, concordance correlation for total population, women 15–49 years age and under 5-year child were 0.97 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.99, p<0.001), 0.73 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.88) and 0.91 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.96), respectively. However, the live births, child health service indicators and child health events were more erratically reported in the three data sources. The concordance correlation among the three sources, for live births and neonatal deaths was 0.094 (95% CI −0.232 to 0.420) and 0.092 (95% CI −0.230 to 0.423) respectively, and for the other parameters were close to 0.

Conclusion: The family folder system comprises a promising development. However, operational issues concerning the seamless capture and recording of events and merging community and facility data at the health centre level need improvement.

Background: Frontline managers and health service providers are constrained in many contexts from responding to community priorities due to organizational cultures focused on centrally defined outputs and targets. This paper presents an evaluation of the Verbal Autopsy with Participatory Action Research (VAPAR) programme—a collaborative learning platform embedded in the local health system in Mpumalanga, South Africa—for strengthening of rural primary healthcare (PHC) systems. The programme aims to address exclusion from access to health services by generating and acting on research evidence of practical, local relevance. Methods: Drawing on existing links in the provincial and national health systems and applying rapid, participatory evaluation techniques, we evaluated the first action-learning cycle of the VAPAR programme (2017–19). We collected data in three phases: (1) 10 individual interviews with programme stakeholders, including from government departments and parastatals, nongovernmental organizations and local communities; (2) an evaluative/exploratory workshop with provincial and district Department of Health managers; and (3) feedback and discussion of findings during an interactive workshop with national child health experts. Results: Individual programme stakeholders described early outcomes relating to effective research and stakeholder engagement, and organization and delivery of services, with potential further contributions to the establishment of an evidence base for local policy and planning, and improved health outcomes. These outcomes were verified with provincial managers. Provincial and national stakeholders identified the potential for VAPAR to support engagement between communities and health authorities for collective planning and implementation of services. Provincial stakeholders proposed that this could be achieved through a two-way integration, with VAPAR stakeholders participating in routine health planning and review activities and frontline health officials being involved in the VAPAR process. Findings were collated into a revised theory of change. Conclusions: The VAPAR learning platform was regarded as a feasible, acceptable and relevant approach to facilitate cooperative learning and community participation in health systems. The evaluation provides support for a collaborative learning platform within routine health system processes and contributes to the limited evaluative evidence base on embedded health systems research.

Objectives: Cardiovascular diseases are the second leading cause of mortality behind HIV/AIDS in South Africa. This study investigates cardiovascular disease mortality trends in rural South Africa over 20+ years and the associated barriers to accessing care, using verbal autopsy data.

Design: A mixed-methods approach was used, combining descriptive analysis of mortality rates over time, by condition, sex and age group, quantitative analysis of circumstances of mortality (CoM) indicators and free text narratives of the final illness, and qualitative analysis of free texts.

Setting: This study was done using verbal autopsy data from the Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System site in Agincourt, rural South Africa.

Participants: Deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases (acute cardiac disease, stroke, renal failure and other unspecified cardiac disease) from 1993 to 2015 were extracted from verbal autopsy data.

Results: Between 1993 and 2015, of 15 305 registered deaths over 1 851 449 person-years of follow-up, 1434 (9.4%) were attributable to cardiovascular disease, corresponding to a crude mortality rate of 0.77 per 1000 person-years. Cardiovascular disease mortality rate increased from 0.34 to 1.12 between 1993 and 2015. Stroke was the dominant cause of death, responsible for 41.0% (588/1434) of all cardiovascular deaths across all years. Cardiovascular disease mortality rate was significantly higher in women and increased with age. The main delays in access to care during the final illness were in seeking and receiving care. Qualitative free-Text analysis highlighted delays not captured in the CoM, principally communication between the clinician and patient or family. Half of cases initially sought care outside a hospital setting (50.9%, 199/391).

Conclusions: The temporal increase in deaths due to cardiovascular disease highlights the need for greater prevention and management strategies for these conditions, particularly for the women. Strategies to improve seeking and receiving care during the final illness are needed.

The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the emerging health profile of the changing climate.

The 2020 report presents 43 indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. This report represents the findings and consensus of the 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies that make up The Lancet Countdown, and draws on the expertise of climate scientists, geographers, engineers, experts in energy, food, and transport, economists, social, and political scientists, data scientists, public health professionals, and doctors.

Background: NCDs are non-infectious, long-term conditions that account for 40 million deaths per annum. 87% of premature NCD mortality occurs in low- and middle-income countries.

Objective: The aims were:develop methods to provide integrated biosocial accounts of NCD mortality; and explore the practical utility of extended mortality data for the primary health care system.

Methods: We drew on data from research programmes in the study area. Data were analysed in three steps: [a]analysis of levels, causes and circumstances of NCD mortality [n = 4,166] from routine census updates including Verbal Autopsy and of qualitative data on lived experiences of NCDs in rural villages from participatory research; [b] identifying areas of convergence and divergence between the analyses; and [c]exploration of the practical relevance of the data drawing on engagements with health systems stakeholders.

Results: NCDs constituted a significant proportion of mortality in this setting [36%]. VA data revealed multiple barriers to access in end-of-life care. Many deaths were attributed to problems with resources and health systems [21%;19% respectively]. The qualitative research provided rich complementary detail on the processes through which risk originates, accumulates and is expressed in access to end-of-life care, related to chronic poverty and perceptions of poor quality care in clinics. The exploration of practical relevance revealed chronic under-funding for NCD services, and an acute need for robust, timely data on the NCD burden.

Conclusions: VA data allowed a significant burden of NCD mortality to be quantified and revealed barriers to access at and around the time of death. Qualitative research contextualised these barriers, providing explanations of how and why they exist and persist. Health systems analysis revealed shortages of resources allocated to NCDs and a need for robust research to provide locally relevant evidence to organise and deliver care. Pragmatic interdisciplinary and mixed method analysis provides relevant renditions of complex problems to inform more effective responses.

Background: Alcohol and other drug (AOD) abuse is a major public health challenge disproportionately affecting marginalised communities. Involving communities in the development of responses can contribute to acceptable solutions.

Objectives: To: (1) document forms, processes, and contexts of engaging communities to nominate health concerns and generate new knowledge for action; (2) further build participation in the local health system by reflecting on and adapting the process.

Methods: PAR was progressed with 48 community stakeholders across three rural villages in the MRC/Wits Agincourt Health and Socio Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in Mpumalanga, South Africa. A series of workshops explored community-nominated topics, systematised lived experience into shared accounts and considered actions to address problems identified. Photovoice was also used to generate visual evidence. Narrative and visual data were thematically analysed, situated within practice frameworks, and learning and adaption elicited.

Results: AOD abuse was identified as a topic of high priority. It was understood as an entrenched social problem with destructive effects. Biopsychosocial impacts were mapped and related to unemployment, poverty, stress, peer pressure, criminal activity, corruption, and a proliferating number of taverns. Integrated action agendas were developed focussed on demand, supply, and harm reduction underpinned by shared responsibility among community, state, and non-state actors. Community stakeholders appreciated systematising and sharing knowledge, taking active roles, developing new skills in planning and public speaking, and progressing shared accountability processes. Expectations required sensitive management, however.

Conclusion: There is significant willingness and capacity among community stakeholders to work in partnership with authorities to address priority health concerns. As a process, participation can help to raise and frame issues, which may help to better inform action and encourage shared responsibility. Broader understandings of participation require reference to, and ultimately transfer of power towards, those most directly affected, developing community voice as continuous processes within social and political environments.

Background: The outbreak of COVID-19 in China in early 2020 provides a rich data source for exploring the ecological determinants of this new infection, which may be of relevance as the pandemic develops.

Objectives: Assessing the spread of the COVID-19 across China, in relation to associations between cases and ecological factors including population density, temperature, solar radiation and precipitation.

Methods: Open-access COVID-19 case data include 18,069 geo-located cases in China during January and February 2020, which were mapped onto a 0.25 degrees latitude/longitude grid together with population and weather data (temperature, solar radiation and precipitation). Of 15,539 grid cells, 559 (3.6%) contained at least one case, and these were used to construct a Poisson regression model of cell-weeks. Weather parameters were taken for the preceding week given the established 5-7 day incubation period for COVID-19. The dependent variable in the Poisson model was incident cases per cell-week and exposure was cell population, allowing for clustering of cells over weeks, to give incidence rate ratios.

Results: The overall COVID-19 incidence rate in cells with confirmed cases was 0.12 per 1,000. There was a single confirmed case in 113/559 (20.2%) of cells, while two grid cells recorded over 1,000 confirmed cases. Weekly means of maximum daily temperature varied from -28.0 degrees C to 30.1 degrees C, minimum daily temperature from -42.4 degrees C to 23.0 degrees C, maximum solar radiation from 0.04 to 2.74 MJm(-2) and total precipitation from 0 to 72.6 mm. Adjusted incidence rate ratios suggested brighter, warmer and drier conditions were associated with lower incidence.

Conclusion: Though not demonstrating cause and effect, there were appreciable associations between weather and COVID-19 incidence during the epidemic in China. This does not mean the pandemic will go away with summer weather but demonstrates the importance of using weather conditions in understanding and forecasting the spread of COVID-19.

Background: Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in ung children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million fluenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this bstantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza ccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of ccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and rculation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the obal number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory fections in children under 5 years in 2018.

Methods: We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in ildren under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec , 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to sess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated spiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths om influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of fluenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on e number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based ildhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income untries.

Findings: In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109.5 million fluenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63.1-190.6), 10.1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI ses (6.8-15.1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000-1 415 000), 15 300 -hospital deaths (5800-43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200-97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

Interpretation: A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries.