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Liu-Helmersson, J., Rocklöv, J., Sewe, M. & Brännström, Å. (2019). Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100. Environmental Research, 172, 693-699
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100
2019 (English)In: Environmental Research, ISSN 0013-9351, E-ISSN 1096-0953, Vol. 172, p. 693-699Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Climate change allows Aedes aegyptito infest new areas. Consequently, it enables the arboviruses the mosquito transmits - e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever – to emerge in previously uninfected areas. An example is the Portuguese island of Madeira during 2012–13.

Objective: We aim to understand how climate change will affect the future spread of this potent vector, as an aidin assessing the risk of disease outbreaks and effectively allocating resources for vector control.

Methods: We used an empirically-informed, process-based mathematical model to study the feasibility of Aedes aegypti infestation into continental Europe. Based on established global climate-change scenario data, we assess the potential of Aedes aegypti to establish in Europe over the 21st century by estimating the vector population growth rate for five climate models (GCM5).

Results: In a low carbon emission future (RCP2.6), we find minimal change to the current situation throughout the whole of the 21st century. In a high carbon future (RCP8.5), a large parts of southern Europe risks being invaded by Aedes aegypti.

Conclusion: Our results show that successfully enforcing the Paris Agreement by limiting global warming to below 2 °C significantly lowers the risk for infestation of Aedes aegypti and consequently of potential large-scale arboviral disease outbreaks in Europe within the 21st century.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2019
Keywords
Aedes aegypti, Vector invasion, Europe, Climate change
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Climate Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-143763 (URN)10.1016/j.envres.2019.02.026 (DOI)000468377500079 ()30884421 (PubMedID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2015-03917Swedish Research Council Formas, 2017-01300
Note

Originally included in thesis in manuscript form with title "Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infestation in major European cities by 2100"

Available from: 2018-01-09 Created: 2018-01-09 Last updated: 2019-06-20Bibliographically approved
Liu-Helmersson, J., Brännström, Å., Sewe, M. & Rocklöv, J. (2019). Estimating past, present and future trends in the global distribution and abundance of the arbovirus vector Aedes aegypti. Frontiers In Public Health, 7, Article ID 148.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Estimating past, present and future trends in the global distribution and abundance of the arbovirus vector Aedes aegypti
2019 (English)In: Frontiers In Public Health, ISSN 2296-2565, Vol. 7, article id 148Article in journal (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Aedes aegypti is the principal vector for several important arbovirus diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika. While recent empirical research has attempted to identify the current global distribution of the vector, the seasonal, and longer-term dynamics of the mosquito in response to trends in climate, population, and economic development over the twentieth and the twenty-first century remains to be elucidated.

Methods: In this study, we use a process-based mathematical model to estimate global vector distribution and abundance. The model is based on the lifecycle of the vector and its dependence on climate, and the model sensitivity to socio-economic development is tested. Model parameters were generally empirically based, and the model was calibrated to global databases and time series of occurrence and abundance records. Climate data on temperature and rainfall were taken from CRU TS3.25 (1901–2015) and five global circulation models (CMIP5; 2006–2099) forced by a high-end (RCP8.5) and a low-end (RCP2.6) emission scenario. Socio-economic data on global GDP and human population density were from ISIMIP (1950–2099).

Findings: The change in the potential of global abundance in A. aegypti over the last century up to today is estimated to be an increase of 9.5% globally and a further increase of 20 or 30% by the end of this century under a low compared to a high carbon emission future, respectively. The largest increase has occurred in the last two decades, indicating a tipping point in climate-driven global abundance which will be stabilized at the earliest in the mid-twenty-first century. The realized abundance is estimated to be sensitive to socioeconomic development.

Interpretation: Our data indicate that climate change mitigation, i.e., following the Paris Agreement, could considerably help in suppressing risks of increased abundance and emergence of A. aegypti globally in the second half of the twenty-first century.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Frontiers Media S.A., 2019
Keywords
Aedes aegypti, mathematical model, vector abundance, temperature, precipitation, climate change, socioeconomic factors, global vector abundance
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-143762 (URN)10.3389/fpubh.2019.00148 (DOI)000472667800001 ()31249824 (PubMedID)
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 734584Swedish Research Council, 2015-03917Swedish Research Council Formas, 2017-01300
Note

Originally included in thesis in manuscript form.

Available from: 2018-01-09 Created: 2018-01-09 Last updated: 2019-07-22Bibliographically approved
Wickman, J., Diehl, S. & Brännström, Å. (2019). Evolution of resource specialisation in competitive metacommunities. Ecology Letters
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Evolution of resource specialisation in competitive metacommunities
2019 (English)In: Ecology Letters, ISSN 1461-023X, E-ISSN 1461-0248Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Spatial environmental heterogeneity coupled with dispersal can promote ecological persistence of diverse metacommunities. Does this premise hold when metacommunities evolve? Using a two-resource competition model, we studied the evolution of resource-uptake specialisation as a function of resource type (substitutable to essential) and shape of the trade-off between resource uptake affinities (generalist- to specialist-favouring). In spatially homogeneous environments, evolutionarily stable coexistence of consumers is only possible for sufficiently substitutable resources and specialist-favouring trade-offs. Remarkably, these same conditions yield comparatively low diversity in heterogeneous environments, because they promote sympatric evolution of two opposite resource specialists that, together, monopolise the two resources everywhere. Consumer diversity is instead maximised for intermediate trade-offs and clearly substitutable or clearly essential resources, where evolved metacommunities are characterised by contrasting selection regimes. Taken together, our results present new insights into resource-competition-mediated evolutionarily stable diversity in homogeneous and heterogeneous environments, which should be applicable to a wide range of systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2019
Keywords
Adaptive dynamics, coexistence, consumer-resource interactions, ESS, spatial models
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-162861 (URN)10.1111/ele.13338 (DOI)000480204800001 ()31389134 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2019-09-06 Created: 2019-09-06 Last updated: 2019-09-06
Pontarp, M., Brännström, Å. & Petchey, O. L. (2019). Inferring community assembly processes from macroscopic patterns using dynamic eco-evolutionary models and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(4), 450-460
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Inferring community assembly processes from macroscopic patterns using dynamic eco-evolutionary models and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC)
2019 (English)In: Methods in Ecology and Evolution, ISSN 2041-210X, E-ISSN 2041-210X, Vol. 10, no 4, p. 450-460Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Statistical techniques exist for inferring community assembly processes from community patterns. Habitat filtering, competition, and biogeographical effects have, for example, been inferred from signals in phenotypic and phylogenetic data. The usefulness of current inference techniques is, however, debated as a mechanistic and causal link between process and pattern is often lacking, and evolutionary processes and trophic interactions are ignored.

Here, we revisit the current knowledge on community assembly across scales and, in line with several reviews that have outlined challenges associated with current inference techniques, we identify a discrepancy between the current paradigm of eco-evolutionary community assembly and current inference techniques that focus mainly on competition and habitat filtering. We argue that trait-based dynamic eco-evolutionary models in combination with recently developed model fitting and model evaluation techniques can provide avenues for more accurate, reliable, and inclusive inference. To exemplify, we implement a trait-based, spatially explicit eco-evolutionary model and discuss steps of model modification, fitting, and evaluation as an iterative approach enabling inference from diverse data sources.

Through a case study on inference of prey and predator niche width in an eco-evolutionary context, we demonstrate how inclusive and mechanistic approaches-eco-evolutionary modelling and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC)-can enable inference of assembly processes that have been largely neglected by traditional techniques despite the ubiquity of such processes.

Much literature points to the limitations of current inference techniques, but concrete solutions to such limitations are few. Many of the challenges associated with novel inference techniques are, however, already to some extent resolved in other fields and thus ready to be put into action in a more formal way for inferring processes of community assembly from signals in various data sources.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2019
Keywords
biogeography, community assembly, community structure, ecology, evolution, process inference
National Category
Bioinformatics (Computational Biology) Evolutionary Biology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-158737 (URN)10.1111/2041-210X.13129 (DOI)000463036400001 ()
Available from: 2019-05-21 Created: 2019-05-21 Last updated: 2019-05-21Bibliographically approved
Lundström, N. L. P., Loeuille, N., Meng, X., Bodin, M. & Brännström, Å. (2019). Meeting yield and conservation objectives by harvesting both juveniles and adults. American Naturalist, 193(3), 373-390
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Meeting yield and conservation objectives by harvesting both juveniles and adults
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2019 (English)In: American Naturalist, ISSN 0003-0147, E-ISSN 1537-5323, Vol. 193, no 3, p. 373-390Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Sustainable yields that are at least 80% of the maximum sustainable yield are sometimes referred to as "pretty good yields" (PGY). The range of PGY harvesting strategies is generally broad and thus leaves room to account for additional objectives besides high yield. Here, we analyze stage-dependent harvesting strategies that realize PGY with conservation as a second objective. We show that (1) PGY harvesting strategies can give large conservation benefits and (2) equal harvesting rates of juveniles and adults is often a good strategy. These conclusions are based on trade-off curves between yield and four measures of conservation that form in two established population models, one age-structured model and one stage-structured model, when considering different harvesting rates of juveniles and adults. These conclusions hold for a broad range of parameter settings, although our investigation of robustness also reveals that (3) predictions of the age-structured model are more sensitive to variations in parameter values than those of the stage-structured model. Finally, we find that (4) measures of stability that are often quite difficult to assess in the field (e.g., basic reproduction ratio and resilience) are systematically negatively correlated with impacts on biomass and size structure, so that these later quantities can provide integrative signals to detect possible collapses.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
University of Chicago Press, 2019
Keywords
fisheries management, maximum sustainable yield, pretty good yield, Pareto front, resilience, size structure
National Category
Ecology Evolutionary Biology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-155571 (URN)10.1086/701631 (DOI)000459624900007 ()30794450 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2019-01-22 Created: 2019-01-22 Last updated: 2019-04-01Bibliographically approved
Fransson, P., Nilsson, U., Lindroos, O., Franklin, O. & Brännström, Å. (2019). Model-based investigation on the effects of spatial evenness, and size selection in thinning of Picea abies stands. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, 34(3), 189-199
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Model-based investigation on the effects of spatial evenness, and size selection in thinning of Picea abies stands
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2019 (English)In: Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, ISSN 0282-7581, E-ISSN 1651-1891, Vol. 34, no 3, p. 189-199Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Size and spatial distribution of trees are important for forest stand growth, but the extent to which itmatters in thinning operations, in terms of wood production and stand economy, has rarely beendocumented. Here we investigate how the choice of spatial evenness and tree-size distribution ofresidual trees impacts wood production and stand economy. A spatially explicit individual-basedgrowth model was used, in conjunction with empirical cost functions for harvesting andforwarding, to calculate net production and net present value for different thinning operations inNorway spruce stands in Northern Sweden. The in silico thinning operations were defined by threevariables: (1) spatial evenness after thinning, (2) tree size preference for harvesting, and (3) basalarea reduction. We found that thinning that increases spatial evenness increases net productionand net present value by around 2.0%, compared to the worst case. When changing the spatialevenness in conjunction with size preference we could observe an improvement of the netproduction and net present value up to 8.0%. The magnitude of impact differed greatly betweenthe stands (from 1.7% to 8.0%) and was highest in the stand with the lowest stem density.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2019
Keywords
thinning, individual-based model, spatial distribution, forest management, simulation
National Category
Forest Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-156738 (URN)10.1080/02827581.2019.1577914 (DOI)000459142200003 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2012-1008
Available from: 2019-02-26 Created: 2019-02-26 Last updated: 2019-04-16Bibliographically approved
Chen, X., Brännström, Å. & Dieckmann, U. (2019). Parent-preferred dispersal promotes cooperation in structured populations. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, 286(1895), Article ID 20181949.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Parent-preferred dispersal promotes cooperation in structured populations
2019 (English)In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8452, E-ISSN 1471-2954, Vol. 286, no 1895, article id 20181949Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Dispersal is a key process for the emergence of social and biological behaviours. Yet, little attention has been paid to dispersal's effects on the evolution of cooperative behaviour in structured populations. To address this issue, we propose two new dispersal modes, parent-preferred and offspring-preferred dispersal, incorporate them into the birth-death update rule, and consider the resultant strategy evolution in the prisoner's dilemma on random-regular, small-world, and scale-free networks, respectively. We find that parent-preferred dispersal favours the evolution of cooperation in these different types of population structures, while offspring-preferred dispersal inhibits the evolution of cooperation in homogeneous populations. On scale-free networks when the strength of parent-preferred dispersal is weak, cooperation can be enhanced at intermediate strengths of offspring-preferred dispersal, and cooperators can coexist with defectors at high strengths of offspring-preferred dispersal. Moreover, our theoretical analysis based on the pair-approximation method corroborates the evolutionary outcomes on random-regular networks. We also incorporate the two new dispersal modes into three other update rules (death-birth, imitation, and pairwise comparison updating), and find that similar results about the effects of parent-preferred and offspring-preferred dispersal can again be observed in the aforementioned different types of population structures. Our work, thus, unveils robust effects of preferential dispersal modes on the evolution of cooperation in different interactive environments.

Keywords
prisoner's dilemma, cooperation, population structures, dispersal, update rule
National Category
Evolutionary Biology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-159419 (URN)10.1098/rspb.2018.1949 (DOI)000465430300001 ()30963948 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2019-05-29 Created: 2019-05-29 Last updated: 2019-05-29Bibliographically approved
Hellström, L., Carlsson, L., Falster, D. S., Westoby, M. & Brännström, Å. (2018). Branch Thinning and the Large-Scale, Self-Similar Structure of Trees. American Naturalist, 192(1), E37-E47
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Branch Thinning and the Large-Scale, Self-Similar Structure of Trees
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2018 (English)In: American Naturalist, ISSN 0003-0147, E-ISSN 1537-5323, Vol. 192, no 1, p. E37-E47Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Branch formation in trees has an inherent tendency toward exponential growth, but exponential growth in the number of branches cannot continue indefinitely. It has been suggested that trees balance this tendency toward expansion by also losing branches grown in previous growth cycles. Here, we present a model for branch formation and branch loss during ontogeny that builds on the phenomenological assumption of a branch carrying capacity. The model allows us to derive approximate analytical expressions for the number of tips on a branch, the distribution of growth modules within a branch, and the rate and size distribution of tree wood litter produced. Although limited availability of data makes empirical corroboration challenging, we show that our model can fit field observations of red maple (Acer rubrum) and note that the age distribution of discarded branches predicted by our model is qualitatively similar to an empirically observed distribution of dead and abscised branches of balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera). By showing how a simple phenomenological assumptionthat the number of branches a tree can maintain is limitedleads directly to predictions on branching structure and the rate and size distribution of branch loss, these results potentially enable more explicit modeling of woody tissues in ecosystems worldwide, with implications for the buildup of flammable fuel, nutrient cycling, and understanding of plant growth.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
University of Chicago Press, 2018
Keywords
branching structure, self-similarity, tree architecture, wood litter
National Category
Ecology Developmental Biology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-150763 (URN)10.1086/697429 (DOI)000435128300004 ()29897799 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2018-08-28 Created: 2018-08-28 Last updated: 2018-08-28Bibliographically approved
Landi, P., Minoarivelo, H. O., Brännström, Å., Hui, C. & Dieckmann, U. (2018). Complexity and stability of ecological networks: a review of the theory. Population Ecology, 60(4), 319-345
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Complexity and stability of ecological networks: a review of the theory
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2018 (English)In: Population Ecology, ISSN 1438-3896, E-ISSN 1438-390X, Vol. 60, no 4, p. 319-345Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Our planet is changing at paces never observed before. Species extinction is happening at faster rates than ever, greatly exceeding the five mass extinctions in the fossil record. Nevertheless, our lives are strongly based on services provided by ecosystems, thus the responses to global change of our natural heritage are of immediate concern. Understanding the relationship between complexity and stability of ecosystems is of key importance for the maintenance of the balance of human growth and the conservation of all the natural services that ecosystems provide. Mathematical network models can be used to simplify the vast complexity of the real world, to formally describe and investigate ecological phenomena, and to understand ecosystems propensity of returning to its functioning regime after a stress or a perturbation. The use of ecological-network models to study the relationship between complexity and stability of natural ecosystems is the focus of this review. The concept of ecological networks and their characteristics are first introduced, followed by central and occasionally contrasting definitions of complexity and stability. The literature on the relationship between complexity and stability in different types of models and in real ecosystems is then reviewed, highlighting the theoretical debate and the lack of consensual agreement. The summary of the importance of this line of research for the successful management and conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services concludes the review.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2018
Keywords
Biodiversity, Community, Complex networks, Ecosystem, Resilience
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-154081 (URN)10.1007/s10144-018-0628-3 (DOI)000450564400003 ()
Available from: 2018-12-12 Created: 2018-12-12 Last updated: 2018-12-12Bibliographically approved
Rani, R., Abramowicz, K., Falster, D. S., Sterck, F. & Brännström, Å. (2018). Effects of bud-flushing strategies on tree growth. Tree Physiology, 38(9), 1384-1393
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Effects of bud-flushing strategies on tree growth
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2018 (English)In: Tree Physiology, ISSN 0829-318X, E-ISSN 1758-4469, Vol. 38, no 9, p. 1384-1393Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Allocation of carbohydrates between competing organs is fundamental to plant development, growth and productivity. Carbohydrates are synthesized in mature leaves and distributed via the phloem vasculature to developing buds where they are consumed to produce new biomass. The distribution and mass-allocation processes within the plant remain poorly understood and may involve complex feedbacks between different plant functions, with implications for the emergent structure of the plant. Here, we investigate how the order in which dormant buds are flushed affects the development of tree size and reproductive output during the first 20 years of growth in full light and shaded canopy environments. We report the following findings: (i) Bud-flushing strategies strongly affect the temporal dynamics of height, mass and the size of reproduction pool, as well as the resulting architectures. (ii) Bud-flushing strategies affect tree growth by altering the rate of growth and final size of trees. (iii) No single bud-flushing strategy performs best when both the size and allocation for reproduction of the resulting trees are compared. However, we observe that the strategy that optimizes the net carbon gain for the entire tree architecture always results in a high reproduction output. (iv) Branch turnover and meristem regeneration enhance the performance of certain strategies with respect to the measured quantities. These results highlight the importance of employing generic models of architecture (i.e., non-species-specific) to identify general mechanisms of carbon allocation and the spatial distribution of newly formed biomass in growing trees.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2018
Keywords
bud flushing, carbon allocation, functional structural plant model, tree architecture
National Category
Forest Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-155037 (URN)10.1093/treephys/tpy005 (DOI)000452456200011 ()29534227 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2019-01-07 Created: 2019-01-07 Last updated: 2019-01-07Bibliographically approved
Projects
Precision forestry for the future: enhanced forest management by optimized tree selection in thinning operations [2012-1008_Formas]; Umeå UniversityEvolution in spatially-structured populations [2015-03917_VR]; Umeå University
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0001-9862-816x

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