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Sewe, Maquins
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Publications (10 of 19) Show all publications
Tozan, Y., Headley, T. Y., Sewe, M. O., Schwartz, E., Shemesh, T., Cramer, J. P., . . . Wilder-Smith, A. (2019). A Prospective Study on the Impact and Out-of-Pocket Costs of Dengue Illness in International Travelers. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 100(6), 1525-1533
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Prospective Study on the Impact and Out-of-Pocket Costs of Dengue Illness in International Travelers
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2019 (English)In: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, ISSN 0002-9637, E-ISSN 1476-1645, Vol. 100, no 6, p. 1525-1533Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Although the costs of dengue illness to patients and households have been extensively studied in endemic populations, international travelers have not been the focus of costing studies. As globalization and humantravel activities intensify, travelers are increasingly at risk for emerging and reemerging infectious diseases, such as dengue. This exploratory study aims to investigate the impact and out-of-pocket costs of dengue illness among travelers. We conducted a prospective study in adult travelers with laboratory-confirmed dengue and recruited patients at travel medicine clinics in eight different countries from December 2013 to December 2015. Using a structured questionnaire, we collected information on patients and their health-care utilization and out-of-pocket expenditures, as well as income and other financial losses they incurred because of dengue illness. A total of 90 patients participated in the study, most of whom traveled for tourism (74%) and visited countries in Asia (82%). Although 22% reported hospitalization and 32% receiving ambulatory care while traveling, these percentages were higher at 39% and 71%, respectively, after returning home. The out-of-pocket direct and indirect costs of dengue illness were US$421 (SD 744) and US$571 (SD 1,913) per episode, respectively, averaging to a total out-of-pocket cost of US$992 (SD 2,052) per episode. The study findings suggest that international travelers incur important direct and indirect costs because of dengue-related illness. This study is the first to date to investigate the impact and out-of-pocket costs of travel-related dengue illness from the patient's perspective and paves the way for future economic burden studies in this population.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, 2019
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-162029 (URN)10.4269/ajtmh.18-0780 (DOI)000476674600034 ()30994088 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2019-08-08 Created: 2019-08-08 Last updated: 2019-08-08Bibliographically approved
Liu-Helmersson, J., Rocklöv, J., Sewe, M. & Brännström, Å. (2019). Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100. Environmental Research, 172, 693-699
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100
2019 (English)In: Environmental Research, ISSN 0013-9351, E-ISSN 1096-0953, Vol. 172, p. 693-699Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Climate change allows Aedes aegyptito infest new areas. Consequently, it enables the arboviruses the mosquito transmits - e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever – to emerge in previously uninfected areas. An example is the Portuguese island of Madeira during 2012–13.

Objective: We aim to understand how climate change will affect the future spread of this potent vector, as an aidin assessing the risk of disease outbreaks and effectively allocating resources for vector control.

Methods: We used an empirically-informed, process-based mathematical model to study the feasibility of Aedes aegypti infestation into continental Europe. Based on established global climate-change scenario data, we assess the potential of Aedes aegypti to establish in Europe over the 21st century by estimating the vector population growth rate for five climate models (GCM5).

Results: In a low carbon emission future (RCP2.6), we find minimal change to the current situation throughout the whole of the 21st century. In a high carbon future (RCP8.5), a large parts of southern Europe risks being invaded by Aedes aegypti.

Conclusion: Our results show that successfully enforcing the Paris Agreement by limiting global warming to below 2 °C significantly lowers the risk for infestation of Aedes aegypti and consequently of potential large-scale arboviral disease outbreaks in Europe within the 21st century.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2019
Keywords
Aedes aegypti, Vector invasion, Europe, Climate change
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Climate Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-143763 (URN)10.1016/j.envres.2019.02.026 (DOI)000468377500079 ()30884421 (PubMedID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2015-03917Swedish Research Council Formas, 2017-01300
Note

Originally included in thesis in manuscript form with title "Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infestation in major European cities by 2100"

Available from: 2018-01-09 Created: 2018-01-09 Last updated: 2019-06-20Bibliographically approved
Liu-Helmersson, J., Brännström, Å., Sewe, M. & Rocklöv, J. (2019). Estimating past, present and future trends in the global distribution and abundance of the arbovirus vector Aedes aegypti. Frontiers In Public Health, 7, Article ID 148.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Estimating past, present and future trends in the global distribution and abundance of the arbovirus vector Aedes aegypti
2019 (English)In: Frontiers In Public Health, ISSN 2296-2565, Vol. 7, article id 148Article in journal (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Aedes aegypti is the principal vector for several important arbovirus diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika. While recent empirical research has attempted to identify the current global distribution of the vector, the seasonal, and longer-term dynamics of the mosquito in response to trends in climate, population, and economic development over the twentieth and the twenty-first century remains to be elucidated.

Methods: In this study, we use a process-based mathematical model to estimate global vector distribution and abundance. The model is based on the lifecycle of the vector and its dependence on climate, and the model sensitivity to socio-economic development is tested. Model parameters were generally empirically based, and the model was calibrated to global databases and time series of occurrence and abundance records. Climate data on temperature and rainfall were taken from CRU TS3.25 (1901–2015) and five global circulation models (CMIP5; 2006–2099) forced by a high-end (RCP8.5) and a low-end (RCP2.6) emission scenario. Socio-economic data on global GDP and human population density were from ISIMIP (1950–2099).

Findings: The change in the potential of global abundance in A. aegypti over the last century up to today is estimated to be an increase of 9.5% globally and a further increase of 20 or 30% by the end of this century under a low compared to a high carbon emission future, respectively. The largest increase has occurred in the last two decades, indicating a tipping point in climate-driven global abundance which will be stabilized at the earliest in the mid-twenty-first century. The realized abundance is estimated to be sensitive to socioeconomic development.

Interpretation: Our data indicate that climate change mitigation, i.e., following the Paris Agreement, could considerably help in suppressing risks of increased abundance and emergence of A. aegypti globally in the second half of the twenty-first century.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Frontiers Media S.A., 2019
Keywords
Aedes aegypti, mathematical model, vector abundance, temperature, precipitation, climate change, socioeconomic factors, global vector abundance
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-143762 (URN)10.3389/fpubh.2019.00148 (DOI)000472667800001 ()31249824 (PubMedID)
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 734584Swedish Research Council, 2015-03917Swedish Research Council Formas, 2017-01300
Note

Originally included in thesis in manuscript form.

Available from: 2018-01-09 Created: 2018-01-09 Last updated: 2019-07-22Bibliographically approved
Lillepold, K., Rocklöv, J., Liu-Helmersson, J., Sewe, M. & Semenza, J. C. (2019). More arboviral disease outbreaks in continental Europe due to the warming climate?. Journal of Travel Medicine
Open this publication in new window or tab >>More arboviral disease outbreaks in continental Europe due to the warming climate?
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2019 (English)In: Journal of Travel Medicine, ISSN 1195-1982, E-ISSN 1708-8305Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cary: Oxford University Press, 2019
Keywords
arbovirus infections, climate, disease outbreaks
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-158033 (URN)10.1093/jtm/taz017 (DOI)30850834 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2019-04-11 Created: 2019-04-11 Last updated: 2019-04-26
Semenza, J. C., Sewe, M. O., Lindgren, E., Brusin, S., Aaslav, K. K., Mollet, T. & Rocklöv, J. (2019). Systemic Resilience to Cross-border Infectious Disease Threat Events in Europe. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Systemic Resilience to Cross-border Infectious Disease Threat Events in Europe
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2019 (English)In: Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, ISSN 1865-1674, E-ISSN 1865-1682Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Recurrent health emergencies threaten global health security. International Health Regulations (IHR) aim to prevent, detect and respond to such threats, through increase in national public health core capacities, but whether IHR core capacity implementation is necessary and sufficient has been contested.

With a longitudinal study we relate changes in national IHR core capacities to changes in cross‐border infectious disease threat events (IDTE) between 2010 and 2016, collected through epidemic intelligence at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

By combining all IHR core capacities into one composite measure we found that a 10% increase in the mean of this composite IHR core capacity to be associated with a 19% decrease (p=0.017) in the incidence of cross‐border IDTE in the EU. With respect to specific IHR core capacities, an individual increase in national legislation, policy & financing; coordination and communication with relevant sectors; surveillance; response; preparedness; risk communication; human resource capacity; or laboratory capacity was associated with a significant decrease in cross‐border IDTE incidence. In contrast, our analysis showed that IHR core capacities relating to point‐of‐entry, zoonotic events or food safety were not associated with IDTE in the EU. Due to high internal correlations between core capacities, we conducted a principal component analysis which confirmed a 20% decrease in risk of IDTE for every 10% increase in the core capacity score (95% CI: 0.73, 0.88). Globally (EU excluded), a 10% increase in the mean of all IHR core capacities combined was associated with a 14% decrease (p=0.077) in cross‐border IDTE incidence.

We provide quantitative evidence that improvements in IHR core capacities at country‐level are associated with fewer cross‐border IDTE in the EU, which may also hold true for other parts of the world.

Keywords
International Health Regulations, epidemic, infectious diseases, outbreak, pandemic, threat events
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-158808 (URN)10.1111/tbed.13211 (DOI)31022321 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2019-05-09 Created: 2019-05-09 Last updated: 2019-05-10
Hussain-Alkhateeb, L., Kroeger, A., Olliaro, P., Rocklöv, J., Sewe, M. O., Tejeda, G., . . . Petzold, M. (2018). Early warning and response system (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: recent advancements towards widespread applications in critical settings. PLoS ONE, 13(5), Article ID e0196811.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Early warning and response system (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: recent advancements towards widespread applications in critical settings
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2018 (English)In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 13, no 5, article id e0196811Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency over space and time, affecting people's health and burdening resource-constrained health systems. The ability to detect early emerging outbreaks is key to mounting an effective response. The early warning and response system (EWARS) is a toolkit that provides countries with early-warning systems for efficient and cost-effective local responses. EWARS uses outbreak and alarm indicators to derive prediction models that can be used prospectively to predict a forthcoming dengue outbreak at district level.

Methods: We report on the development of the EWARS tool, based on users' recommendations into a convenient, user-friendly and reliable software aided by a user's workbook and its field testing in 30 health districts in Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico.

Findings: 34 Health officers from the 30 study districts who had used the original EWARS for 7 to 10 months responded to a questionnaire with mainly open-ended questions. Qualitative content analysis showed that participants were generally satisfied with the tool but preferred open-access vs. commercial software. EWARS users also stated that the geographical unit should be the district, while access to meteorological information should be improved. These recommendations were incorporated into the second-generation EWARS-R, using the free R software, combined with recent surveillance data and resulted in higher sensitivities and positive predictive values of alarm signals compared to the first-generation EWARS. Currently the use of satellite data for meteorological information is being tested and a dashboard is being developed to increase user-friendliness of the tool. The inclusion of other Aedes borne viral diseases is under discussion.

Conclusion: EWARS is a pragmatic and useful tool for detecting imminent dengue outbreaks to trigger early response activities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Public Library of Science, 2018
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-147800 (URN)10.1371/journal.pone.0196811 (DOI)000431452100011 ()29727447 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2018-05-22 Created: 2018-05-22 Last updated: 2018-06-09Bibliographically approved
Odhiambo Sewe, M., Bunker, A., Ingole, V., Egondi, T., Oudin Åström, D., Hondula, D. M., . . . Schumann, B. (2018). Estimated Effect of Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Retrospective Time-Series Study of Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Regions. Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives, 126(1), Article ID 017004.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Estimated Effect of Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Retrospective Time-Series Study of Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Regions
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2018 (English)In: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives, ISSN 0091-6765, E-ISSN 1552-9924, Vol. 126, no 1, article id 017004Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have reported a strong association between temperature and mortality. Additional insights can be gained from investigating the effects of temperature on years of life lost (YLL), considering the life expectancy at the time of death.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this work was to assess the association between temperature and YLL at seven low-, middle-, and high-income sites.

METHODS: We obtained meteorological and population data for at least nine years from four Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites in Kenya (western Kenya, Nairobi), Burkina Faso (Nouna), and India (Vadu), as well as data from cities in the United States (Philadelphia, Phoenix) and Sweden (Stockholm). A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the association of daily maximum temperature and daily YLL, lagged 0-14 d. The reference value was set for each site at the temperature with the lowest YLL.

RESULTS: Generally, YLL increased with higher temperature, starting day 0. In Nouna, the hottest location, with a minimum YLL temperature at the first percentile, YLL increased consistently with higher temperatures. In Vadu, YLL increased in association with heat, whereas in Nairobi, YLL increased in association with both low and high temperatures. Associations with cold and heat were evident for Phoenix (stronger for heat), Stockholm, and Philadelphia (both stronger for cold). Patterns of associations with mortality were generally similar to those with YLL.

CONCLUSIONS: Both high and low temperatures are associated with YLL in high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Policy guidance and health adaptation measures might be improved with more comprehensive indicators of the health burden of high and low temperatures such as YLL.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Public Health Services, US Dept of Health and Human Services, 2018
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-144197 (URN)10.1289/EHP1745 (DOI)000424212100010 ()29342452 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2018-01-25 Created: 2018-01-25 Last updated: 2018-06-09Bibliographically approved
Watts, N., Amann, M., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Bouley, T., Boykoff, M., . . . Costello, A. (2018). The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health. The Lancet, 391(10120), 581-630
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health
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2018 (English)In: The Lancet, ISSN 0140-6736, E-ISSN 1474-547X, Vol. 391, no 10120, p. 581-630Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Lancet Countdown tracks progress on health and climate change and provides an independent assessment of the health effects of climate change, the implementation of the Paris Agreement, 1 and the health implications of these actions. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change, 2 which concluded that anthropogenic climate change threatens to undermine the past 50 years of gains in public health, and conversely, that a comprehensive response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown is a collaboration between 24 academic institutions and intergovernmental organisations based in every continent and with representation from a wide range of disciplines. The collaboration includes climate scientists, ecologists, economists, engineers, experts in energy, food, and transport systems, geographers, mathematicians, social and political scientists, public health professionals, and doctors. It reports annual indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. The key messages from the 40 indicators in the Lancet Countdown's 2017 report are summarised below.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2018
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-143784 (URN)10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32464-9 (DOI)000424649400035 ()29096948 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2018-01-09 Created: 2018-01-09 Last updated: 2018-06-09Bibliographically approved
Sewe, M. O., Tozan, Y., Ahlm, C. & Rocklöv, J. (2017). A methodological framework for economic evaluation of operational response to vector-borne disease forecasts. Paper presented at 66th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), 5-9 November, 2017, Baltimore, MD, USA. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 97(5), 436-437
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A methodological framework for economic evaluation of operational response to vector-borne disease forecasts
2017 (English)In: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, ISSN 0002-9637, E-ISSN 1476-1645, Vol. 97, no 5, p. 436-437Article in journal, Meeting abstract (Other academic) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2017
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-144867 (URN)000423215204119 ()
Conference
66th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), 5-9 November, 2017, Baltimore, MD, USA
Note

Supplement: S

Meeting Abstract: 1403

Available from: 2018-03-06 Created: 2018-03-06 Last updated: 2018-06-09Bibliographically approved
Tozan, Y., Ratanawong, P., Sewe, M. O., Wilder-Smith, A. & Kittayapong, P. (2017). Household costs of hospitalized dengue illness in semi-rural Thailand. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 11(9), Article ID e005961.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Household costs of hospitalized dengue illness in semi-rural Thailand
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2017 (English)In: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, ISSN 1935-2727, E-ISSN 1935-2735, Vol. 11, no 9, article id e005961Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background

Dengue-related illness is a leading cause of hospitalization and death in Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries, imposing a major economic burden on households, health systems, and governments. This study aims to assess the economic impact of hospitalized dengue cases on households in Chachoengsao province in eastern Thailand.

Methods

We conducted a prospective cost-of-illness study of hospitalized pediatric and adult dengue patients at three public hospitals. We examined all hospitalized dengue cases regardless of disease severity. Patients or their legal guardians were interviewed using a standard questionnaire to determine household-level medical and non-medical expenditures and income losses during the illness episode.

Results

Between March and September 2015, we recruited a total of 224 hospitalized patients (< 5 years, 4%; 5-14 years, 20%, 15-24 years, 36%, 25-34 years, 15%; 35-44 years, 10%; 45+ years, 12%), who were clinically diagnosed with dengue. The total cost of a hospitalized dengue case was higher for adult patients than pediatric patients, and was US$153.6 and US$166.3 for pediatric DF and DHF patients, respectively, and US$171.2 and US$226.1 for adult DF and DHF patients, respectively. The financial burden on households increased with the severity of dengue illness.

Conclusions

Although 74% of the households reported that the patient received free medical care, hospitalized dengue illness cost approximately 19-23% of the monthly household income. These results indicated that dengue imposed a substantial financial burden on households in Thailand where a great majority of the population was covered by the Universal Coverage Scheme for health care.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2017
National Category
Health Care Service and Management, Health Policy and Services and Health Economy Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-140917 (URN)10.1371/journal.pntd.0005961 (DOI)000412142800075 ()28937986 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2017-10-31 Created: 2017-10-31 Last updated: 2018-06-09Bibliographically approved
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