OBJECTIVE: To systematically identify and validate published colorectal cancer risk prediction models that do not require invasive testing in two large population-based prospective cohorts.

DESIGN: Models were identified through an update of a published systematic review and validated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the UK Biobank. The performance of the models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer within 5 or 10 years after study enrolment was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (plots of observed vs predicted probability).

RESULTS: The systematic review and its update identified 16 models from 8 publications (8 colorectal, 5 colon and 3 rectal). The number of participants included in each model validation ranged from 41 587 to 396 515, and the number of cases ranged from 115 to 1781. Eligible and ineligible participants across the models were largely comparable. Calibration of the models, where assessable, was very good and further improved by recalibration. The C-statistics of the models were largely similar between validation cohorts with the highest values achieved being 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.72) in the UK Biobank and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) in EPIC.

CONCLUSION: Several of these non-invasive models exhibited good calibration and discrimination within both external validation populations and are therefore potentially suitable candidates for the facilitation of risk stratification in population-based colorectal screening programmes. Future work should both evaluate this potential, through modelling and impact studies, and ascertain if further enhancement in their performance can be obtained.

To further dissect the genetic architecture of colorectal cancer (CRC), we performed whole-genome sequencing of 1,439 cases and 720 controls, imputed discovered sequence variants and Haplotype Reference Consortium panel variants into genome-wide association study data, and tested for association in 34,869 cases and 29,051 controls. Findings were followed up in an additional 23,262 cases and 38,296 controls. We discovered a strongly protective 0.3% frequency variant signal at CHD1. In a combined meta-analysis of 125,478 individuals, we identified 40 new independent signals at P < 5 x 10(-8), bringing the number of known independent signals for CRC to similar to 100. New signals implicate lower-frequency variants, Kruppel-like factors, Hedgehog signaling, Hippo-YAP signaling, long noncoding RNAs and somatic drivers, and support a role for immune function. Heritability analyses suggest that CRC risk is highly polygenic, and larger, more comprehensive studies enabling rare variant analysis will improve understanding of biology underlying this risk and influence personalized screening strategies and drug development.

Background: One-carbon metabolism biomarker are easily measured in plasma, but analyzing them one at a time in relation to disease does not take into account the interdependence of the many factors involved. The relative dynamics of major one-carbon metabolism branches can be assessed by relating the functional B-vitamin marker total homocysteine (tHcy) to transsulfuration (total cysteine) and methylation (creatinine) outputs.

Objective: We validated the ratios of tHcy to total cysteine (Hcy:Cys), tHcy to creatinine (Hcy:Cre), and tHcy to cysteine to creatinine (Hcy:Cys:Cre) as functional markers of B-vitamin status. We also calculated the associations of these ratios to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk.

Design: The relative contribution of potential confounders to the variance of the ratio-based B-vitamin markers was calculated by linear regression in a nested case-control study of 613 CRC cases and 1211 matched controls. Total B-vitamin status was represented by a summary score comprising Z-standardized plasma concentrations of folate, cobalamin, betaine, pyridoxal 5´-phosphate, and riboflavin. Associations with CRC risk were estimated using conditional logistic regression.

Results: The ratio-based B-vitamin markers all outperformed tHcy as markers of total B-vitamin status, in both CRC cases and controls. Associations with CRC risk were similar for the ratio-based B-vitamin markers and total B-vitamin status (approximately 25% lower risk for high versus low B-vitamin status).

Conclusions: Ratio-based B-vitamin markers were good predictors of total B-vitamin status, and displayed similar associations with CRC risk. Since tHcy and creatinine are routinely clinically analyzed, Hcy:Cre could be easily implemented in clinical practice to aid interpretation of tHcy results.

Background: Obesity is suggested to underlie development of other metabolic aberrations, but longitudinal relationships between metabolic factors at various ages has not been studied in detail. Methods: Data from 27,379 men and 32,275 women with in total 122,940 health examinations in the Västerbotten Intervention Project, Sweden and the Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Prevention Programme, Austria were used to investigate body mass index (BMI), mid-blood pressure, and fasting levels of glucose, triglycerides, and total cholesterol at baseline in relation to 10-year changes of these factors and weight. We included paired examinations performed 10 +/- 2 years apart and used them for longitudinal analysis with linear regression of changes between the ages 30 and 40, 40 and 50, or 50 and 60 years. Results: Higher levels of BMI were associated with increases in glucose and mid-blood pressure as well as triglycerides levels, and, to a lesser extent, decreases in cholesterol levels. For instance, per 5 kg/m(2) higher BMI at age 40, glucose at age 50 increased by 0.24 mmol/l (95%Cl:0.22-0.26) and mid-blood pressure increased by 1.54 mm Hg (95%Cl: 1.35-1.74). The strongest association observed was between BMI at age 30 and mid-blood pressure, which was 2.12 mm Hg (95% CI: 1.79-2.45) increase over ten years per 5 kg/m(2) higher BMI level. This association was observed at an age when blood pressure levels on average remained stable. Other associations than those with BMI at baseline were much weaker. However, triglyceride levels were associated with future glucose changes among individuals with elevated BMI, particularly in the two older age groups. Conclusion: BMI was most indicative of long-term changes in metabolic factors, and the strongest impact was observed for increases in blood pressure between 30 and 40 years of age. Our study supports that lifestyle interventions preventing metabolic aberrations should focus on avoiding weight increases.

Disturbances in one-carbon metabolism, intracellular reactions involved in nucleotide synthesis and methylation, likely increase the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, results have been inconsistent. To explore whether this inconsistency could be explained by intertumoral heterogeneity, we evaluated a comprehensive panel of one-carbon metabolism biomarkers and some single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in relation to the risk of molecular subtypes of CRC defined by mutations in the KRAS and BRAF oncogenes. This nested case-control study included 488 CRC cases and 947 matched controls from two population-based cohorts in the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study. We analyzed 14 biomarkers and 17 SNPs in prediagnostic blood and determined KRAS and BRAF mutation status in tumor tissue. In a multivariate network analysis, no variable displayed a strong association with the risk of specific CRC subtypes. A non-synonymous SNP in the CTH gene, rs1021737, had a stronger association compared with other variables. In subsequent univariate analyses, participants with variant rs1021737 genotype had a decreased risk of KRAS-mutated CRC (OR per allele = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.50, 1.05), and an increased risk of BRAF-mutated CRC (OR per allele = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.07, 2.30), with weak evidence for heterogeneity (P_{heterogeneity} = 0.01). This subtype-specific SNP association was not replicated in a case-case analysis of 533 CRC cases from The Cancer Genome Atlas (P = 0.85). In conclusion, we found no support for clear subtype-specific roles of one-carbon metabolism biomarkers and SNPs in CRC development, making differences in CRC molecular subtype distributions an unlikely explanation for the varying results on the role of one-carbon metabolism in CRC development across previous studies. Further investigation of the CTH gene in colorectal carcinogenesis with regards to KRAS and BRAF mutations or other molecular characteristics of the tumor may be warranted.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major cause of deaths worldwide but has a good prognosis if detected early. The need for efficient, preferable non‐ or minimally invasive, inexpensive screening tools is therefore critical. We analyzed 12 miRNAs in pre‐ and postdiagnostic plasma samples to evaluate their potential as CRC screening markers. We used a unique study design with two overlapping cohorts, allowing analysis of pre‐ and postdiagnostic samples from 58 patients with CRC and matched healthy controls. Plasma concentrations of miR‐15b, ‐16, ‐18a, ‐19a, 21, ‐22, ‐25, ‐26a, ‐29c, ‐142‐5p, ‐150, and ‐192 were measured by semi‐quantitative real‐time PCR. Concentrations of miR‐18a, ‐21, ‐22, and ‐25 in plasma from patients with CRC were significantly altered compared to healthy controls. Combined as a multimarker panel, they detected CRC with an AUC of 0.93. Furthermore, levels of these three miRNAs also showed different levels in the prediagnostic case samples close to diagnosis. Only miR‐21‐levels were elevated several years before diagnosis. Plasma levels of miR‐18a, ‐21, ‐22, and ‐25 show promise as screening biomarkers for CRC. However, based on our unique analysis of prediagnostic and postdiagnostic samples from the same patients, we conclude that circulating miRNAs elevated at diagnosis may not automatically be suitable for CRC screening, if the increase occurs too close to clinical diagnosis.

Lifestyle behaviors are believed to influence the body's inflammatory state. Chronic low-grade inflammation contributes to the development of major non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. Inflammation may thus be an important link between lifestyle and disease. We evaluated self-reported physical activity, tobacco use and alcohol consumption in relation to plasma levels of 160 validated inflammatory and cancer biomarkers. The study included 138 participants from a population-based cohort, all with repeated sampling of plasma and data ten years apart, allowing consideration of both intra- and inter-individual variation. Of 17 relationships identified, the strongest was an independent, positive association between cornulin (CRNN) and Swedish moist snuff (snus) use. We replicated the finding in a second cohort of 501 individuals, in which a dose-response relationship was also observed. Snus explained approximately one fifth of the variance in CRNN levels in both sample sets (18% and 23%). In conclusion, we identified a novel, independent, dose-dependent association between CRNN and snus use. Further study is warranted, to evaluate the performance of CRNN as a potential snus biomarker. The putative importance of lifestyle behaviors on a wide range of protein biomarkers illustrates the need for more personalized biomarker cut-offs.

BACKGROUND: Chronic, low-grade inflammation is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The inflammatory impact of diet can be reflected by concentrations of inflammatory markers in the bloodstream and the inflammatory potential of diet can be estimated by the dietary inflammatory index (DII(TM)), which has been associated with cardiovascular disease risk in some previous studies. We aimed to examine the association between the DII and the risk of first myocardial infarction (MI) in a population-based study with long follow-up.

METHOD: We conducted a prospective case-control study of 1389 verified cases of first MI and 5555 matched controls nested within the population-based cohorts of the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study (NSHDS), of which the largest is the ongoing Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) with nearly 100 000 participants during the study period. Median follow-up from recruitment to MI diagnosis was 6.4 years (6.2 for men and 7.2 for women). DII scores were derived from a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) administered in 1986-2006. Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), using quartile 1 (most anti-inflammatory diet) as the reference category. For validation, general linear models were used to estimate the association between the DII scores and two inflammatory markers, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) in a subset (n = 605) of the study population.

RESULTS: Male participants with the most pro-inflammatory DII scores had an increased risk of MI [ORQ4vsQ1 = 1.57 (95% CI 1.21-2.02) P trend = 0.02], which was essentially unchanged after adjustment for potential confounders, including cardiovascular risk factors [ORQ4vsQ1 = 1.50 (95% CI 1.14-1.99), P trend = 0.10]. No association was found between DII and MI in women. An increase of one DII score unit was associated with 9% higher hsCRP (95% CI 0.03-0.14) and 6% higher IL-6 (95% CI 0.02-0.11) in 605 controls with biomarker data available.

CONCLUSION: A pro-inflammatory diet was associated with an elevated risk of first myocardial infarction in men; whereas for women the relationship was null. Consideration of the inflammatory impact of diet could improve prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Higher levels of circulating adiponectin have been related to lower risk of colorectal cancer in several prospective cohort studies, but it remains unclear whether this association may be causal. We aimed to improve causal inference in a Mendelian Randomization meta-analysis using nested case-control studies of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, 623 cases, 623 matched controls), the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS, 231 cases, 230 controls) and the Nurses' Health Study (NHS, 399 cases, 774 controls) with available data on pre-diagnostic adiponectin concentrations and selected single nucleotide polymorphisms in the ADIPOQ gene. We created an ADIPOQ allele score that explained approximately 3% of the interindividual variation in adiponectin concentrations. The ADIPOQ allele score was not associated with risk of colorectal cancer in logistic regression analyses (pooled OR per score-unit unit 0.97, 95% CI 0.91, 1.04). Genetically determined twofold higher adiponectin was not significantly associated with risk of colorectal cancer using the ADIPOQ allele score as instrumental variable (pooled OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.40, 1.34). In a summary instrumental variable analysis (based on previously published data) with higher statistical power, no association between genetically determined twofold higher adiponectin and risk of colorectal cancer was observed (0.99, 95% CI 0.93, 1.06 in women and 0.94, 95% CI 0.88, 1.01 in men). Thus, our study does not support a causal effect of circulating adiponectin on colorectal cancer risk. Due to the limited genetic determination of adiponectin, larger Mendelian Randomization studies are necessary to clarify whether adiponectin is causally related to lower risk of colorectal cancer.