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We study the effect of peacekeeping on post-deployment earnings for military veterans. Using Swedish administrative data, we follow a sample of more than 11,000 veterans who were deployed for the first time during the period 1993-2010 for up to nine years after returning home. To deal with selection bias, we use difference-in-differences propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, including measures of individual ability, health and pre-deployment labour market attachment. We find that, overall, veterans’ long run post-deployment earnings are largely unaffected by their service. As such, our findings challenge the notion that Swedish veterans struggle on the labour market. At the same time, we find indications that the zero effect for the full sample hides interesting patterns in the effects from deployment, across sub-groups of veterans. Veterans deployed to Bosnia in the 1990s appear to have suffered a transitory earnings penalty, whereas veterans deployed to Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as veterans with below average cognitive ability, and veterans with low-educated parents, appear to have earned a long run earnings premium.

While the well-being of the Swedish peacekeepers deployed to Bosnia in the 1990s has received a great deal of attention over the years, very little is known about how these military veterans have fared on the labour market after returning home. In this paper, I provide novel evidence on the relationship between military deployment to Bosnia and adverse outcomes on the labour market. The analysis is based on longitudinal administrative data for a sample of 2,275 young Swedish veterans who served as peacekeepers in Bosnia at some point during the years 1993–1999. I follow these veterans for up to 20 years after deployment. Using propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, I estimate the effects of deployment on three broad measures of labour market marginalisation: long-term unemployment, work disability, and social welfare assistance. I find no indication of long-term labour market marginalisation for the veterans. Even though the veterans experienced an increase in the risk of unemployment in the years immediately following their return from service, in the long run their attachment to the labour market is not affected negatively.

This thesis consists of an introductory part and four self-contained papers that study empirical questions related to military service and the labour market.

Paper [I] studies the relationship between civilian labour market conditions and the number of people who volunteer for military service in Sweden. I use panel data on Swedish counties for the years 2011 through 2015 and study the effect of civilian unemployment on the rate of applications from individuals aged 18 to 25 to initiate basic military training. The results indicate a positive and statistically significant relationship between the unemployment rate and the application rate, and suggest that the civilian labour market environment can give rise to non-trivial fluctuations in the supply of volunteers to the Swedish military.

Paper [II] studies how local labour market conditions influence the quality composition of those who volunteer for military service in Sweden. I estimate a fixed-effects regression model on a panel data set containing cognitive ability test scores for those who applied for military basic training across Swedish municipalities during the period 2010 to 2016. The main finding is that if civilian employment rates at the local level go up, the average test score of those who volunteer for military service goes down. The results suggest that, due to the way in which different types of individuals select themselves into the military, the negative impact of a strong civilian economy on recruitment volumes is reinforced by a deterioration in recruit quality.

Paper [III] studies the effect of peacekeeping on post-deployment earnings for military veterans. Using Swedish administrative data, we follow a sample of more than 11,000 veterans who were deployed for the first time during the period 1993-2010 for up to nine years after returning home. To deal with selection bias, we use difference-in-differences propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, including measures of individual ability, health and pre-deployment labour market attachment. We find that, overall, veterans’ post-deployment earnings are largely unaffected by their service. Even though Swedish veterans in the studied period tend to outperform their birth-cohort peers who did not serve, we show that this advantage in earnings disappears once we adjust for non-random selection into service. 

Paper [IV] studies the relationship between military deployment to Bosnia in the 1990s and adverse outcomes on the labour market. The analysis is based on longitudinal administrative data for a sample of 2275 young Swedish veterans who served as peacekeepers in Bosnia at some point during the years 1993–1999. I follow these veterans for up to 20 years after deployment. Using propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, I estimate the effects of deployment on three broad measures of labour market marginalisation: long-term unemployment, work disability, and social-welfare assistance. I find no indication of long-term labour market marginalisation of the veterans. Even though the veterans experienced an increase in the risk of unemployment in the years immediately following return from service, in the long run their attachment to the labour market is not affected negatively by their service.

Sverige och Försvarsmakten har en lång tradition av fredsinsatser runtomkring i världen. Sedan 1953 har nästan 70 000 svenska kvinnor och män tjänstgjort i uniform utomlands. Sedan 2021 pågår ett forskningsprojekt vid Umeå universitet som undersöker hur det går för utlandsveteranerna på arbetsmarknaden efter att de kommit hem. Syftet med den här korta rapporten är att presentera en förenklad sammanfattning av preliminära resultat från forskningsprojektet, med fokus på utlandsveteraner som tjänstgjorde under åren 1993–2010.

The well-being of the Swedish peacekeepers deployed to Bosnia in the 1990s has received a great deal of attention over the years. Yet, despite concerns, very little is known about how these military veterans have fared on the labour market after returning home. In this paper, I provide novel evidence on the relationship between military deployment to Bosnia and adverse outcomes on the labour market. The analysis is based on longitudinal administrative data for a sample of 2275 young Swedish veterans who served as peacekeepers in Bosnia at some point during the years 1993–1999. I follow these veterans for up to 20 years after deployment. Using propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, I estimate the effects of deployment on three broad measures of labour market marginalisation: long-term unemployment, work disability, and social-welfare assistance. I find no indication of long-term labour market marginalisation of the veterans. Even though the veterans experienced an increase in the risk of unemployment in the years immediately following return from service, in the long run their attachment to the labour market is not affected negatively by their service.

We study the effect of peacekeeping on post-deployment earnings for military veterans. Using Swedish administrative data, we follow a sample of more than 11,000 veterans who were deployed for the first time during the period 1993-2010 for up to nine years after returning home. To deal with selection bias, we use difference-in-differences propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, including measures of individual ability, health and pre-deployment labour market attachment. We find that, overall, veterans’ post-deployment earnings are largely unaffected by their service. Even though Swedish veterans in the studied period tend to outperform their birthcohort peers who did not serve, we show that this advantage in earnings disappears once we adjust for non-random selection into service.

This paper studies how local labour market conditions influence the quality composition of those who volunteer for military service in Sweden. A fixed-effects regression model is estimated on a panel data set containing IQ scores for those who applied for military basic training across Swedish municipalities during the period 2010 to 2016. The main finding is that low civilian employment rates at the local level tend to increase the mean IQ score of those who volunteer for military service, whereas the opposite is true if employment rates in the civilian labour market move in a more favourable direction. As such, the results suggest that the negative impact of a strong civilian economy on recruitment volumes is reinforced by a deterioration in recruit quality.

Sverige och Försvarsmakten har en lång tradition av fredsinsatser runtomkring i världen. Försvarsmakten har bland annat deltagit med militär trupp till insatser i Bosnien, Kosovo, Liberia och Afghanistan. Många enskilda officerare har också tjänstgjort som militärobservatörer i FN:s regi. Sedan 2021 pågår ett forskningsprojekt vid Umeå universitet som undersöker hur det går för utlandsveteranerna på arbetsmarknaden efter att de kommit hem.

Syftet med den här korta rapporten är att presentera forskningsprojektet och att, med utgångspunkt i det datamaterial som projektet använder, ge läsaren en ögonblicksbild av situationen på arbetsmarknaden för svenska utlandsveteraner som tjänstgjorde någon gång mellan åren 1990 och 2010

This thesis consists of an introductory part and two self-contained chapters related to the supply of volunteers to the Swedish Armed Forces.

Chapter [I] represents the first effort to explore the relationship between civilian labour market conditions and the supply of labour to the military in the all-volunteer environment that Sweden entered after the abolishment of the peacetime draft in 2010. The effect of civilian unemployment on the rate of applications from individuals aged 18 to 25 to initiate basic military training is investigated using panel data on Swedish counties for the years 2011 through 2015. A linear fixed-effects model is estimated to investigate the relationship, while controlling for a range of socio-demographic covariates and unobserved heterogeneity on the regional level, as well as aggregate trends on the national level. The results indicate a positive and statistically significant relationship between the unemployment rate and the application rate. The results are robust to non-linear form specifications, as well as allowing the civilian unemployment rate to be endogenous. As such, the results suggest that the civilian labour market environment in Sweden can give rise to non-trivial fluctuations in the supply of applications to initiate basic military training within the Swedish Armed Forces.

Chapter [II] studies how local labour market conditions influence the quality composition of those who volunteer for military service in Sweden. A fixed-effects regression model is estimated on a panel data set containing IQ scores for those who applied for military basic training across Swedish municipalities during the period 2010 to 2016. The main finding is that low civilian employment rates at the local level tend to increase the mean IQ score of those who volunteer for military service, whereas the opposite is true if employment rates in the civilian labour market move in a more favourable direction. As such, the results suggest that the negative impact of a strong civilian economy on recruitment volumes is reinforced by a deterioration in recruit quality.

This paper represents the first effort to explore the relationship between civilian labour market conditions and the supply of labour to the military in the all-volunteer environment that Sweden entered after the abolishment of the peacetime draft in 2010. The paper investigates the effect of civilian unemployment on the rate of applications from individuals aged 18–25 to initiate basic military training, using panel data on Swedish counties for the period 2011–2015. A linear fixed-effects model is estimated to investigate the relationship, while controlling for a range of socio-demographic covariates, unobserved heterogeneity on the regional level, as well as aggregate trends on the national level. The results of the panel-data analysis indicate that the unemployment rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on the application rate. These results are robust to non-linear form specifications, as well as allowing the civilian unemployment rate to be endogenous. As such, the results suggest that the civilian labour market environment in Sweden can give rise to non-trivial fluctuations in the supply of applications to initiate basic military training within the Swedish Armed Forces.