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Sjödin, Henrik
Publications (10 of 22) Show all publications
Farooq, Z., Rocklöv, J., Wallin, J., Abiri, N., Sewe, M. O., Sjödin, H. & Semenza, J. C. (2024). Input precision, output excellence: the importance of data quality control and method selection in disease risk mapping: authors’ reply [Letter to the editor]. The Lancet Regional Health: Europe, 42, Article ID 100947.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Input precision, output excellence: the importance of data quality control and method selection in disease risk mapping: authors’ reply
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2024 (English)In: The Lancet Regional Health: Europe, E-ISSN 2666-7762, Vol. 42, article id 100947Article in journal, Letter (Refereed) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-225314 (URN)10.1016/j.lanepe.2024.100947 (DOI)38831799 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85193806367 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2024-06-10 Created: 2024-06-10 Last updated: 2024-06-11Bibliographically approved
Aunan, K., Orru, H. & Sjödin, H. (2024). Perspectives on connecting climate change and health [Letter to the editor]. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Perspectives on connecting climate change and health
2024 (English)In: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, ISSN 1403-4948, E-ISSN 1651-1905Article in journal, Letter (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Over the past century, the Earth’s climate has undergone rapid and unprecedented changes, manifested in a noticeable increase in average global temperature. This has led to shifts in precipitation patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events (e.g. hurricanes, heatwaves, droughts and floods), alterations in ecosystems, and rising sea levels, impacting both natural environments and human societies, health and wellbeing. Without deep and urgent emission cuts and effective adaptation, the toll of climate change on human health and wellbeing is likely to grow. Here, we address the complex relationship between climate change and health, and discuss ways forward for transdisciplinary research and collaboration that can motivate more ambitious mitigation policies and help develop solutions to adapt to the crisis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2024
Keywords
Climate change, health impact assessment, the ENBEL project, transdisciplinary research
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Climate Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-229295 (URN)10.1177/14034948241269748 (DOI)001299506600001 ()39185636 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85202175457 (Scopus ID)
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 101003966
Available from: 2024-09-16 Created: 2024-09-16 Last updated: 2024-09-16
van Daalen, K. R., Tonne, C., Semenza, J. C., Rocklöv, J., Markandya, A., Dasandi, N., . . . Lowe, R. (2024). The 2024 Europe report of the lancet countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action. The Lancet Public Health, 9(7), e495-e522
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The 2024 Europe report of the lancet countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action
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2024 (English)In: The Lancet Public Health, ISSN 2468-2667, Vol. 9, no 7, p. e495-e522Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Record-breaking temperatures were recorded across the globe in 2023. Without climate action, adverse climate-related health impacts are expected to worsen worldwide, affecting billions of people. Temperatures in Europe are warming at twice the rate of the global average, threatening the health of populations across the continent and leading to unnecessary loss of life. The Lancet Countdown in Europe was established in 2021, to assess the health profile of climate change aiming to stimulate European social and political will to implement rapid health-responsive climate mitigation and adaptation actions. In 2022, the collaboration published its indicator report, tracking progress on health and climate change via 33 indicators and across five domains.

This new report tracks 42 indicators highlighting the negative impacts of climate change on human health, the delayed climate action of European countries, and the missed opportunities to protect or improve health with health-responsive climate action. The methods behind indicators presented in the 2022 report have been improved, and nine new indicators have been added, covering leishmaniasis, ticks, food security, health-care emissions, production and consumption-based emissions, clean energy investment, and scientific, political, and media engagement with climate and health. Considering that negative climate-related health impacts and the responsibility for climate change are not equal at the regional and global levels, this report also endeavours to reflect on aspects of inequality and justice by highlighting at-risk groups within Europe and Europe's responsibility for the climate crisis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-225866 (URN)10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00055-0 (DOI)38749451 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85194578887 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Wellcome trust, 209734/Z/17/ZEU, Horizon Europe, 101057131EU, Horizon Europe, 101057554EU, Horizon Europe, 101086109Academy of Finland, 329215Wellcome trust, 205212/Z/16/ZWellcome trust, 225318/Z/22/ZAcademy of Finland, 334798EU, Horizon Europe, 101003890EU, Horizon Europe, 820655EU, Horizon Europe, 101003966
Note

This online publication has been corrected.

Errata: Correction to Lancet Public Health 2024; 9: e495–522. The Lancet Public Health, 2024;9(7): e420. DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00129-4

Available from: 2024-06-10 Created: 2024-06-10 Last updated: 2024-07-03Bibliographically approved
Farooq, Z., Sjödin, H., Semenza, J. C., Tozan, Y., Sewe, M. O., Wallin, J. & Rocklöv, J. (2023). European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios. One Health, 16, Article ID 100509.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios
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2023 (English)In: One Health, ISSN 2352-7714, Vol. 16, article id 100509Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

West Nile virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne zoonosis, has emerged as a disease of public health concern in Europe. Recent outbreaks have been attributed to suitable climatic conditions for its vectors favoring transmission. However, to date, projections of the risk for WNV expansion under climate change scenarios is lacking. Here, we estimate the WNV-outbreaks risk for a set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. We delineate the potential risk-areas and estimate the growth in the population at risk (PAR). We used supervised machine learning classifier, XGBoost, to estimate the WNV-outbreak risk using an ensemble climate model and multi-scenario approach. The model was trained by collating climatic, socioeconomic, and reported WNV-infections data (2010−22) and the out-of-sample results (1950–2009, 2023–99) were validated using a novel Confidence-Based Performance Estimation (CBPE) method. Projections of area specific outbreak risk trends, and corresponding population at risk were estimated and compared across scenarios. Our results show up to 5-fold increase in West Nile virus (WNV) risk for 2040-60 in Europe, depending on geographical region and climate scenario, compared to 2000-20. The proportion of disease-reported European land areas could increase from 15% to 23-30%, putting 161 to 244 million people at risk. Across scenarios, Western Europe appears to be facing the largest increase in the outbreak risk of WNV. The increase in the risk is not linear but undergoes periods of sharp changes governed by climatic thresholds associated with ideal conditions for WNV vectors. The increased risk will require a targeted public health response to manage the expansion of WNV with climate change in Europe.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2023
Keywords
Artificial intelligence, Climate change, Climate impacts, Confidence-based performance estimation (CBPE) method, Europe, West Nile virus, WNV risk projections, XGBoost, Zoonoses
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-205369 (URN)10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100509 (DOI)001004031000001 ()2-s2.0-85148667157 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Vinnova, 2020-03367Swedish Research Council Formas, 2018-01754European Commission, 101057554
Available from: 2023-03-29 Created: 2023-03-29 Last updated: 2024-05-02Bibliographically approved
Brännström, Å., Sjödin, H. & Rocklöv, J. (2022). A Method for Estimating the Number of Infections From the Reported Number of Deaths. Frontiers in Public Health, 9, Article ID 648545.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Method for Estimating the Number of Infections From the Reported Number of Deaths
2022 (English)In: Frontiers in Public Health, E-ISSN 2296-2565, Vol. 9, article id 648545Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

At the outset of an epidemic, available case data typically underestimate the total number of infections due to insufficient testing, potentially hampering public responses. Here, we present a method for statistically estimating the true number of cases with confidence intervals from the reported number of deaths and estimates of the infection fatality ratio; assuming that the time from infection to death follows a known distribution. While the method is applicable to any epidemic with a significant mortality rate, we exemplify the method by applying it to COVID-19. Our findings indicate that the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in March 2020 was likely to be at least one order of magnitude higher than the reported cases, with the degree of underestimation among the countries considered being particularly high in the United Kingdom.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Frontiers Media S.A., 2022
Keywords
COVID-19, estimating, infectives, nowcasting, surveillance
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-192376 (URN)10.3389/fpubh.2021.648545 (DOI)35111706 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85123950757 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2022-02-11 Created: 2022-02-11 Last updated: 2024-09-04Bibliographically approved
Farooq, Z., Rocklöv, J., Wallin, J., Abiri, N., Sewe, M. O., Sjödin, H. & Semenza, J. C. (2022). Artificial intelligence to predict West Nile virus outbreaks with eco-climatic drivers. The Lancet Regional Health: Europe, 17, Article ID 100370.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Artificial intelligence to predict West Nile virus outbreaks with eco-climatic drivers
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2022 (English)In: The Lancet Regional Health: Europe, E-ISSN 2666-7762, Vol. 17, article id 100370Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: In Europe, the frequency, intensity, and geographic range of West Nile virus (WNV)-outbreaks have increased over the past decade, with a 7.2-fold increase in 2018 compared to 2017, and a markedly expanded geographic area compared to 2010. The reasons for this increase and range expansion remain largely unknown due to the complexity of the transmission pathways and underlying disease drivers. In a first, we use advanced artificial intelligence to disentangle the contribution of eco-climatic drivers to WNV-outbreaks across Europe using decade-long (2010-2019) data at high spatial resolution. Methods: We use a high-performance machine learning classifier, XGBoost (eXtreme gradient boosting) combined with state-of-the-art XAI (eXplainable artificial intelligence) methodology to describe the predictive ability and contribution of different drivers of the emergence and transmission of WNV-outbreaks in Europe, respectively. Findings: Our model, trained on 2010-2017 data achieved an AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) score of 0.97 and 0.93 when tested with 2018 and 2019 data, respectively, showing a high discriminatory power to classify a WNV-endemic area. Overall, positive summer/spring temperatures anomalies, lower water availability index (NDWI), and drier winter conditions were found to be the main determinants of WNV-outbreaks across Europe. The climate trends of the preceding year in combination with eco-climatic predictors of the first half of the year provided a robust predictive ability of the entire transmission season ahead of time. For the extraordinary 2018 outbreak year, relatively higher spring temperatures and the abundance of Culex mosquitoes were the strongest predictors, in addition to past climatic trends. Interpretation: Our AI-based framework can be deployed to trigger rapid and timely alerts for active surveillance and vector control measures in order to intercept an imminent WNV-outbreak in Europe. Funding: The work was partially funded by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS for the project ARBOPREVENT (grant agreement 2018-05973).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2022
Keywords
Climate adaptation, Culex vectors, Early warning systems, Emerging infectious disease, Europe, forecasting, Outbreaks management, Preparedness, SHAP, West Nile virus, XGBoost
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-193708 (URN)10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100370 (DOI)000796373200002 ()35373173 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85127132481 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2018-05973
Available from: 2022-04-25 Created: 2022-04-25 Last updated: 2024-05-02Bibliographically approved
van Daalen, K. R., Romanello, M., Rocklöv, J., Semenza, J. C., Tonne, C., Markandya, A., . . . Lowe, R. (2022). The 2022 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: towards a climate resilient future. The Lancet Public Health, 7(11), e942-e965
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The 2022 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: towards a climate resilient future
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2022 (English)In: The Lancet Public Health, ISSN 2468-2667, Vol. 7, no 11, p. e942-e965Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2022
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-200723 (URN)10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00197-9 (DOI)000928270600012 ()36306805 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85141889808 (Scopus ID)
Funder
EU, Horizon Europe, 101057554EU, Horizon 2020, 820655EU, Horizon 2020, 865564
Note

Correction: The Lancet Public Health, Volume 7, Issue 12, 2022, Page e993, ISSN 2468-2667, DOI:10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00287-0.

Available from: 2022-11-02 Created: 2022-11-02 Last updated: 2023-09-05Bibliographically approved
Colon-Gonzalez, J. F., Sewe, M. O., Tompkins, M. A., Sjödin, H., Casallas, A., Rocklöv, J., . . . Lowe, R. (2021). Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 5(7), E404-E414
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study
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2021 (English)In: The Lancet Planetary Health, E-ISSN 2542-5196, Vol. 5, no 7, p. E404-E414Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across an altitudinal gradient.

Methods: Using a multi-model multi-scenario framework, we estimated changes in the length of the transmission season and global population at risk of malaria and dengue for different altitudes and population densities for the period 1951-99. We generated projections from six mosquito-borne disease models, driven by four global circulation models, using four representative concentration pathways, and three shared socioeconomic pathways.

Findings: We show that malaria suitability will increase by 1·6 additional months (mean 0·5, SE 0·03) in tropical highlands in the African region, the Eastern Mediterranean region, and the region of the Americas. Dengue suitability will increase in lowlands in the Western Pacific region and the Eastern Mediterranean region by 4·0 additional months (mean 1·7, SE 0·2). Increases in the climatic suitability of both diseases will be greater in rural areas than in urban areas. The epidemic belt for both diseases will expand towards temperate areas. The population at risk of both diseases might increase by up to 4·7 additional billion people by 2070 relative to 1970-99, particularly in lowlands and urban areas.

Interpretation: Rising global mean temperature will increase the climatic suitability of both diseases particularly in already endemic areas. The predicted expansion towards higher altitudes and temperate regions suggests that outbreaks can occur in areas where people might be immunologically naive and public health systems unprepared. The population at risk of malaria and dengue will be higher in densely populated urban areas in the WHO African region, South-East Asia region, and the region of the Americas, although we did not account for urban-heat island effects, which can further alter the risk of disease transmission.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2021
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Public health
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-187234 (URN)10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7 (DOI)000675402600006 ()34245711 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85109456580 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2018-05973Swedish Research Council Formas, 2017-01742
Available from: 2021-09-08 Created: 2021-09-08 Last updated: 2022-01-03Bibliographically approved
Sjödin, H., Johansson, A. F., Brännström, Å., Farooq, Z., Kriit, H. K., Wilder-Smith, A., . . . Rocklöv, J. (2020). COVID-19 healthcare demand and mortality in Sweden in response to non-pharmaceutical mitigation and suppression scenarios. International Journal of Epidemiology, 49(5), 1443-1453
Open this publication in new window or tab >>COVID-19 healthcare demand and mortality in Sweden in response to non-pharmaceutical mitigation and suppression scenarios
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2020 (English)In: International Journal of Epidemiology, ISSN 0300-5771, E-ISSN 1464-3685, Vol. 49, no 5, p. 1443-1453Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

BACKGROUND: While the COVID-19 outbreak in China now appears suppressed, Europe and the USA have become the epicentres, both reporting many more deaths than China. Responding to the pandemic, Sweden has taken a different approach aiming to mitigate, not suppress, community transmission, by using physical distancing without lockdowns. Here we contrast the consequences of different responses to COVID-19 within Sweden, the resulting demand for care, intensive care, the death tolls and the associated direct healthcare related costs.

METHODS: We used an age-stratified health-care demand extended SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) compartmental model for all municipalities in Sweden, and a radiation model for describing inter-municipality mobility. The model was calibrated against data from municipalities in the Stockholm healthcare region.

RESULTS: Our scenario with moderate to strong physical distancing describes well the observed health demand and deaths in Sweden up to the end of May 2020. In this scenario, the intensive care unit (ICU) demand reaches the pre-pandemic maximum capacity just above 500 beds. In the counterfactual scenario, the ICU demand is estimated to reach ∼20 times higher than the pre-pandemic ICU capacity. The different scenarios show quite different death tolls up to 1 September, ranging from 5000 to 41 000, excluding deaths potentially caused by ICU shortage. Additionally, our statistical analysis of all causes excess mortality indicates that the number of deaths attributable to COVID-19 could be increased by 40% (95% confidence interval: 0.24, 0.57).

CONCLUSION: The results of this study highlight the impact of different combinations of non-pharmaceutical interventions, especially moderate physical distancing in combination with more effective isolation of infectious individuals, on reducing deaths, health demands and lowering healthcare costs. In less effective mitigation scenarios, the demand on ICU beds would rapidly exceed capacity, showing the tight interconnection between the healthcare demand and physical distancing in the society. These findings have relevance for Swedish policy and response to the COVID-19 pandemic and illustrate the importance of maintaining the level of physical distancing for a longer period beyond the study period to suppress or mitigate the impacts from the pandemic.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2020
Keywords
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Sweden, care demand, corona virus, deaths, epidemic, epidemiology, excess mortality, infections, intensive care demand, mortality, outbreak, pandemic
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Health Care Service and Management, Health Policy and Services and Health Economy
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-178030 (URN)10.1093/ije/dyaa121 (DOI)000606715400010 ()32954400 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85092475588 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2020-12-30 Created: 2020-12-30 Last updated: 2024-07-02Bibliographically approved
Rocklöv, J., Sjödin, H. & Wilder-Smith, A. (2020). COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures. Journal of Travel Medicine, 27(3), Article ID taaa030.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures
2020 (English)In: Journal of Travel Medicine, ISSN 1195-1982, E-ISSN 1708-8305, Vol. 27, no 3, article id taaa030Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

BACKGROUND: Cruise ships carry a large number of people in confined spaces with relative homogeneous mixing. On 3 February, 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 on cruise ship Diamond Princess was reported with 10 initial cases, following an index case on board around 21-25 January. By 4 February, public health measures such as removal and isolation of ill passengers and quarantine of non-ill passengers were implemented. By 20 February, 619 of 3,700 passengers and crew (17%) were tested positive.

METHODS: We estimated the basic reproduction number from the initial period of the outbreak using (SEIR) models. We calibrated the models with transient functions of countermeasures to incidence data. We additionally estimated a counterfactual scenario in absence of countermeasures, and established a model stratified by crew and guests to study the impact of differential contact rates among the groups. We also compared scenarios of an earlier versus later evacuation of the ship.

RESULTS: The basic reproduction rate was initially 4 times higher on-board compared to the ${R}_0$ in the epicentre in Wuhan, but the countermeasures lowered it substantially. Based on the modeled initial ${R}_0$ of 14.8, we estimated that without any interventions within the time period of 21 January to 19 February, 2920 out of the 3700 (79%) would have been infected. Isolation and quarantine therefore prevented 2307 cases, and lowered the ${R}_0$ to 1.78. We showed that an early evacuation of all passengers on 3 February would have been associated with 76 infected persons in their incubation time.

CONCLUSIONS: The cruise ship conditions clearly amplified an already highly transmissible disease. The public health measures prevented more than 2000 additional cases compared to no interventions. However, evacuating all passengers and crew early on in the outbreak would have prevented many more passengers and crew from infection.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2020
Keywords
SARS-CoV-2, basic reproduction number, coronavirus, evacuation, incubation time, isolation and quarantine
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-168517 (URN)10.1093/jtm/taaa030 (DOI)000537521800004 ()32109273 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85083067553 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2020-03-02 Created: 2020-03-02 Last updated: 2024-07-04Bibliographically approved
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