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Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System
Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa. (Umeå Centre for Global Health Research)
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2017 (engelsk)Inngår i: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives, ISSN 0091-6765, E-ISSN 1552-9924, Vol. 125, nr 10, artikkel-id UNSP 107004Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

BACKGROUND: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. METHODS: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. RESULTS: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16 degrees C revealed a relative risk (RR) = 1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st ritui due to climate change.

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National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) , 2017. Vol. 125, nr 10, artikkel-id UNSP 107004
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-141822DOI: 10.1289/EHP2198ISI: 000413793300016PubMedID: 29017986OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-141822DiVA, id: diva2:1160466
Tilgjengelig fra: 2017-11-27 Laget: 2017-11-27 Sist oppdatert: 2018-06-09bibliografisk kontrollert

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