umu.sePublikasjoner
Endre søk
RefereraExporteraLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annet format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annet språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study
Vise andre og tillknytning
2018 (engelsk)Inngår i: PLoS Medicine, ISSN 1549-1277, E-ISSN 1549-1676, Vol. 15, nr 7, artikkel-id e1002629Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.

CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2018. Vol. 15, nr 7, artikkel-id e1002629
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-151102DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629ISI: 000440339700034PubMedID: 30063714Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85051119247OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-151102DiVA, id: diva2:1242014
Tilgjengelig fra: 2018-08-27 Laget: 2018-08-27 Sist oppdatert: 2018-08-27bibliografisk kontrollert

Open Access i DiVA

fulltext(2067 kB)59 nedlastinger
Filinformasjon
Fil FULLTEXT01.pdfFilstørrelse 2067 kBChecksum SHA-512
deaaa7a3da14fa1723334e23fc43966ee71cb80f4e2675577ee79848197a97d1d7ca289843be9233a5799b1701498cee37ed8443f87c0a23bf3dc4f409847510
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Andre lenker

Forlagets fulltekstPubMedScopus

Personposter BETA

Forsberg, BertilOudin Åström, Daniel

Søk i DiVA

Av forfatter/redaktør
Forsberg, BertilOudin Åström, Daniel
Av organisasjonen
I samme tidsskrift
PLoS Medicine

Søk utenfor DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Totalt: 59 nedlastinger
Antall nedlastinger er summen av alle nedlastinger av alle fulltekster. Det kan for eksempel være tidligere versjoner som er ikke lenger tilgjengelige

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetric

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Totalt: 120 treff
RefereraExporteraLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annet format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annet språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf