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A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels
Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi.
Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi.
Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi.
2002 (engelsk)Inngår i: International Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0169-2070, E-ISSN 1872-8200, Vol. 18, nr 1, s. 19-30Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect mean check-in and the check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables are small. © 2002 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2002. Vol. 18, nr 1, s. 19-30
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
ekonometri
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-64759DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00104-2OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-64759DiVA, id: diva2:602699
Tilgjengelig fra: 2013-02-02 Laget: 2013-02-02 Sist oppdatert: 2018-06-08bibliografisk kontrollert

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