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Hur många exempel behöver du?: Om hur du undgår tankefel
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology. (-)
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology. (-)
2017 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [sv]

Generellt sätt misslyckas människor ofta att göra korrekta bedömningar baserade på principerna för sannolikhetsteori, vilket kan leda till det så kallade konjunktionsfelet. Konjunktionsfelet innebär att två kombinerade subkategorier anses mer troligt än en huvudkategori. “Nested-set”-hypotesen föreslår att konjunktionsfelet kan motverkas genom att ta hänsyn till relationen mellan kategorier och subkategorier. Denna uppsats ämnar undersöka om konjunktionsfelet minskar med ökad insikt om “nested-set”-strukturen med hjälp av få ledtrådar. Sextio deltagare fördelades randomiserat i två grupper med olika mycket ledtrådar om “nested-set”-strukturen. Resultaten indikerar att två ledtrådar om “nested-set”-strukturen är tillräcklig med information för att göra signifikant fler korrekta sannolikhetsbedömningar. En ledtråd var inte tillräcklig.  Konklusionen är att vi med hjälp av tillräckligt många ledtrådar kan förstå relationen mellan kategori- och subkategori och således fatta korrekta beslut utifrån sannolikhetslära. 

Abstract [en]

Generally, people often fail to make accurate judgments according to the principles of probability theory which can lead to the so called conjunction fallacy. The conjunction fallacy consists of assigning a higher probability to two combined subcategories than one main category. The “nested-set” hypothesis proposes that the conjunction fallacy can be countered by accounting for the relationship between categories and subcategories. This thesis aims to investigate if the conjunction fallacy is reduced by giving participants few clues that reveal the set structure. Sixty participants were randomly divided into two groups with different clues about the “nested-set” structure. The results indicated that two clues about the nested set structure were enough information to make significantly more accurate probability estimates. One clue was not enough. Our conclusion is that with enough clues we are able to understand the relation between category and sub category and thus make correct decisions based on probability theory.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , 19 p.
Keyword [sv]
Konjunktionsfel, tankefel, “nested-set”-strukturen, sannolikhetsbedömningar.
National Category
Psychology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-131416OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-131416DiVA: diva2:1074042
Subject / course
Examensarbete i psykologi
Educational program
Study Programme for University Diploma in Psychology
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2017-02-14 Created: 2017-02-14 Last updated: 2017-02-14Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf