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The use of particle distributions in Solar system small body dynamics
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Physics. Swedish Institute of Space Physics (IRF), Kiruna, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6371-1016
2020 (English)In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, ISSN 0035-8711, E-ISSN 1365-2966, Vol. 492, no 2, p. 1566-1578Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The extraterrestrial material, called meteoroids, that constantly enters the Earth's atmosphere gives us a unique opportunity to examine the motion and population of small bodies in the Solar system. This exploration requires simulating the motion of these particles. Currently, only the timing of meteoroids encountering the Earth is well predicted by such simulations, while other parameters are uncertain. This can be remedied by proper stochastic representation and estimation using a sufficient number of samples. We propose methods to both represent simulations in a stochastic manner and to improve sampling using Importance Sampling. We also demonstrate these methods practically with a test model. Using the test model resulted in an error reduction by a factor of 3 without increase in computation time. Thus, we validated that these techniques can be implemented on and are compatible with Solar system small body dynamics models. Based on these results we predict that when properly implemented on a larger and more complex model, Importance Sampling can improve sampling numbers by several orders of magnitude without increasing computation time, depending on the simulation in question. The methods presented here bring advantages such as; greatly reduced estimation errors, fitting models without re-running simulations, model comparisons without sample variations, circumventing unknown properties using invariant measures, representing large particle numbers without additional errors. This methodology has wide application possibility and will enable larger, more reliable and reusable simulations of dynamical astronomy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2020. Vol. 492, no 2, p. 1566-1578
Keywords [en]
celestial mechanics, comets: general, interplanetary medium
National Category
Astronomy, Astrophysics and Cosmology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-168973DOI: 10.1093/mnras/stz3432ISI: 000512297600004Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85082726091OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-168973DiVA, id: diva2:1420858
Available from: 2020-04-01 Created: 2020-04-01 Last updated: 2023-03-23Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. From meteors to space safety: dynamical models and radar measurements of space objects
Open this publication in new window or tab >>From meteors to space safety: dynamical models and radar measurements of space objects
2022 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Alternative title[sv]
Från meteorer till rymdlägesbild : dynamiska modeller och radarmätningar av rymdobjekt
Abstract [en]

Every day the Earth's atmosphere is bombarded by 10-200 metric tons of dust-sized particles and larger pieces of material from space called meteoroids. Dust and meteoroids come from parent bodies such as comets and asteroids, which are remnants from the formation of the solar system. In addition to natural objects, geospace contains artificial satellites and space debris that needs to be monitored to reduce the risk of collisions. Studies of all these kinds of space objects form a cross-disciplinary research field that stretches from meteors to space safety

The primary goal of this thesis has been to rigorously connect measurements and their uncertainties with high-level analysis and dynamical simulations of distributions.

An automated radar data analysis algorithm was developed for meteor head echo measurements. The analysis algorithm is able to produce realistic uncertainties for each individual meteor event, including the meteoroid orbit. Many of the resulting probability distributions are non-Gaussian, which needs to be accounted for. The analysis algorithm was applied to interferometric high-power large-aperture MU radar data in a case study on high altitude meteors. The study found that 74 out of 106,000 meteors appeared higher than 130 km and a few confirmed detections reached up to 150 km altitude.

Comet 21P/Giacobini–Zinner is the parent body of the meteoroid stream giving rise to the October Draconid meteor shower. The meteoroid stream was simulated accounting for parent body orbital uncertainties to estimate meteor shower parameters. The simulation was able to model the unexpected mass distribution observed in the 2011 and 2012 October Draconids. It also successfully predicted a meteor outburst in 2018. Further, methods to reduce the computation time of meteoroid stream simulations using importance sampling were derived and implemented on a test model.

EISCAT radar measurements were performed to study space debris from the Kosmos-1408 satellite, which had been destroyed and fragmented in orbit on 15 November, 2021. A novel method to estimate the size distribution of debris objects was developed. Data from two EISCAT radars were used to demonstrate a new initial orbit determination technique, yielding good agreement with known catalogue orbits. Finally, the detectability of near-Earth objects (NEOs) with the EISCAT~3D radar currently under construction was simulated. It was predicted that as many as seven temporarily captured NEOs, i.e. minimoons, could be discovered per year depending on the amount of allocated observation time. The predictions also show that hundreds of NEOs could be tracked yearly to improve their orbits.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Umeå University, 2022. p. 79
Series
IRF Scientific Report, ISSN 0284-1703 ; 315
Keywords
Meteors, meteor shower, atmosphere, meteoroids, meteoroid stream, small-body dynamics, solar system, comets, asteroids, near-Earth objects, space safety, space debris, radar, MU, EISCAT
National Category
Astronomy, Astrophysics and Cosmology Fusion, Plasma and Space Physics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-200702 (URN)978-91-7855-902-2 (ISBN)978-91-7855-903-9 (ISBN)
Public defence
2022-11-25, Ljusårssalen, Institutet för rymdfysik, Bengt Hultqvists väg 1, Kiruna, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2022-11-04 Created: 2022-10-31 Last updated: 2022-11-01Bibliographically approved

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Kastinen, Daniel

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