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Disruptions and diversions: the demographic consequences of natural disasters in sparsely populated areas
Umeå University, Arctic Research Centre at Umeå University. Sweden's Centre for Rural Medicine. (Arcum)ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8143-123x
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography. (Arcum)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8439-2640
Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Department of historical, philosophical and religious studies. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR). Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Várdduo – Centre for Sámi Research. (Arcum)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3880-2135
Umeå University, Arctic Research Centre at Umeå University. (Arcum)ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5762-949x
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2021 (English)In: The demography of disasters: impacts for population and place / [ed] Dávid Karácsonyi, Andrew Taylor & Deanne Bird, Cham: Springer, 2021, p. 81-99Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The Eight Ds model (Carson and Carson 2014) explains the unique characteristics of human and economic geography for sparsely populated areas (SPAs) as disconnected, discontinuous, diverse, detailed, dynamic, distant, dependent and delicate. According to the model, SPAs are subject to dramatic changes in demographic characteristics that result from both identifiable black swan events and less apparent tipping points in longer-term processes of demographic change (Carson et al. 2011). The conceptual foundations for this assertion are clear. Populations in SPAs can experience large and long-term impacts on the overall demographic structureas a result of decisions by a relatively small number of people. High levels of migration and mobility cause constant shifts in the demographic profile and prime SPAs to adapt to many different demographic states (Carson and Carson 2014). The Northern Territory of Australia, for example, experienced previously unseen waves of pre-retirement aged migrants in the past decade or so (Martel et al. 2013) as evidence of detailed but important changes to past trends. However, while dramatic demographic changes are conceptually possible and occasionally observable, there have been few attempts to examine the conditions under which such changes are likely to occur or not to occur. This is an important question particularly in relation to black swan events such as natural disasters because effective disaster management policy and planning is at least partially dependent on understanding who is affected and in what ways (Bird et al. 2013). 

The purpose of this chapter, therefore, is to begin the process of identifying the conditions under which dramatic demographic responses to natural disasters in SPAs might occur. In the process, we introduce two new 'Ds' with which to describe the nature of demographic change. We propose that natural disasters such as cyclones, floods, earthquakes, bushfires, landslides, avalanches and crop failures present the potential to disrupt or to divert demographic development.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cham: Springer, 2021. p. 81-99
Keywords [en]
Flood, Cyclone, Famine, Sparsely populated, Eight Ds
National Category
Social and Economic Geography History
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-175304DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-49920-4_5Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85144145452ISBN: 9783030499198 (print)ISBN: 9783030499204 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-175304DiVA, id: diva2:1470239
Available from: 2020-09-24 Created: 2020-09-24 Last updated: 2023-10-25Bibliographically approved

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Carson, Dean B.Carson, Doris A.Axelsson, PerSköld, PeterSköld, Gabriella

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Carson, Dean B.Carson, Doris A.Axelsson, PerSköld, PeterSköld, Gabriella
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Arctic Research Centre at Umeå UniversityDepartment of GeographyDepartment of historical, philosophical and religious studiesCentre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR)Várdduo – Centre for Sámi Research
Social and Economic GeographyHistory

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