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The burden of hand, foot, and mouth disease among children under different vaccination scenarios in China: a dynamic modelling study
School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
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2021 (English)In: BMC Infectious Diseases, E-ISSN 1471-2334, Vol. 21, no 1, article id 650Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common illness in young children. A monovalent vaccine has been developed in China protecting against enterovirus-71, bivalent vaccines preventing HFMD caused by two viruses are under development.

OBJECTIVE: To predict and compare the incidence of HFMD under different vaccination scenarios in China.

METHODS: We developed a compartmental model to capture enterovirus transmission and the natural history of HFMD in children aged 0-5, and calibrated to reported cases in the same age-group from 2015 to 2018. We compared the following vaccination scenarios: different combinations of monovalent and bivalent vaccine; a program of constant vaccination to that of pulse vaccination prior to seasonal outbreaks.

RESULTS: We estimate 1,982,819, 2,258,846, 1,948,522 and 2,398,566 cases from 2015 to 2018. Increased coverage of monovalent vaccine from 0 to 80% is predicted to decrease the cases by 797,262 (49.1%). Use of bivalent vaccine at an 80% coverage level would decrease the cases by 828,560. Use of a 2.0× pulse vaccination for the bivalent vaccine in addition to 80% coverage would reduce cases by over one million. The estimated R0 for HFMD in 2015-2018 was 1.08, 1.10, 1.35 and 1.17.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results point to the benefit of bivalent vaccine and using a pulse vaccination in specific months over routine vaccination. Other ways to control HFMD include isolation of patients in the early stage of dissemination, more frequent hand-washing and ventilation, and better treatment options for patients.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. Vol. 21, no 1, article id 650
Keywords [en]
Basic reproductive number, Hand, foot and mouth disease, Pulse vaccination, SEIR model, Vaccine
National Category
Infectious Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-186468DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06157-wISI: 000672471800008PubMedID: 34225650Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85110955627OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-186468DiVA, id: diva2:1582711
Available from: 2021-08-03 Created: 2021-08-03 Last updated: 2024-01-17Bibliographically approved

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Liu-Helmersson, Jing

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