Umeå University's logo

umu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
A multi-gene symbolic regression approach for predicting LGD: A benchmark comparative study
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
2023 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Under the Basel accords for measuring regulatory capital requirements, the set of credit risk parameters probability of default (PD), exposure at default (EAD) and loss given default (LGD) are measured with own estimates by the internal rating based approach. The estimated parameters are also the foundation of understanding the actual risk in a banks credit portfolio. The predictive performance of such models are therefore interesting to examine. The credit risk parameter LGD has been seen to give low performance for predictive models and LGD values are generally hard to estimate. The main purpose of this thesis is to analyse the predictive performance of a multi-gene genetic programming approach to symbolic regression compared to three benchmark regression models. The goal of multi-gene symbolic regression is to estimate the underlying relationship in the data through a linear combination of a set of generated mathematical expressions. The benchmark models are Logit Transformed Regression, Beta Regression and Regression Tree. All benchmark models are frequently used in the area. The data used to compare the models is a set of randomly selected, de-identified loans from the portfolios of underlying U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities retrieved from International Finance Research. The conclusion from implementing and comparing the models is that, the credit risk parameter LGD is continued difficult to estimated, the symbolic regression approach did not yield a better predictive ability than the benchmark models and it did not seem to find the underlying relationship in the data. The benchmark models are more user-friendly with easier implementation and they all requires less calculation complexity than symbolic regression.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023. , p. 53
Keywords [en]
Symbolic regression, loss given default, credit risk, logit transformed regression, beta regression, multi-gene genetic programming, regression tree
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-210413OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-210413DiVA, id: diva2:1772213
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2023-06-21 Created: 2023-06-21 Last updated: 2023-06-21Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(11093 kB)352 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 11093 kBChecksum SHA-512
707b87b7617d2387cb476663369a824baf89175d54d196e13e99372e44f3e4cac686651e0d782628fa73e056bbdf765fbf840e9e119a09c2ac7a33f63397e37c
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics
Mathematics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 352 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 460 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf