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Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, CT, New Haven, United States; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, CT, New Haven, United States.
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MA, Cambridge, United States.
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, CO, Boulder, United States.
Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, MA, Boston, United States.
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2024 (English)In: One Earth, ISSN 2590-3330, E-ISSN 2590-3322, Vol. 7, no 2, p. 325-335Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024. Vol. 7, no 2, p. 325-335
Keywords [en]
acute excess mortality, bias correction, climate change, CMIP6, Ozone, Paris Agreement, projection, shared socioeconomic pathways, short-term exposure
National Category
Climate Research
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-220318DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.001ISI: 001188239700001PubMedID: 38420618Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85183166139OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-220318DiVA, id: diva2:1837219
Available from: 2024-02-13 Created: 2024-02-13 Last updated: 2024-05-07Bibliographically approved

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Forsberg, BertilÅström, Christofer

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