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Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study
Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
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2024 (English)In: Environment International, ISSN 0160-4120, E-ISSN 1873-6750, Vol. 187, article id 108712Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.

Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates.

Results: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0–7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0–7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0–7 and inter-day TV0–7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type.

Conclusions: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024. Vol. 187, article id 108712
Keywords [en]
Inter-day, Intra-day, Mortality, Temperature variability
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-224246DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85192145675OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-224246DiVA, id: diva2:1858031
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 820655Available from: 2024-05-15 Created: 2024-05-15 Last updated: 2024-05-15Bibliographically approved

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Forsberg, BertilÅström, Christofer

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