Umeå universitets logga

umu.sePublikationer
Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Climate variability and increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue incidence in Singapore
Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa.
Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin. Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-4030-0449
Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-0556-1483
Environment Health Department, National Environment Agency, Singapore.
Visa övriga samt affilieringar
2009 (Engelska)Ingår i: Global Health Action, ISSN 1654-9716, E-ISSN 1654-9880, Vol. 2, s. 124-132Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

INTRODUCTION: Dengue is currently a major public health burden in Asia Pacific Region. This study aims to establish an association between dengue incidence, mean temperature and precipitation, and further discuss how weather predictors influence the increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue in Singapore during the period 2000-2007.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Weekly dengue incidence data, daily mean temperature and precipitation and the midyear population data in Singapore during 2000-2007 were retrieved and analysed. We employed a time series Poisson regression model including time factors such as time trends, lagged terms of weather predictors, considered autocorrelation, and accounted for changes in population size by offsetting.

RESULTS: The weekly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were statistically significant related to the increases of dengue incidence in Singapore. Our findings showed that dengue incidence increased linearly at time lag of 5-16 and 5-20 weeks succeeding elevated temperature and precipitation, respectively. However, negative association occurred at lag week 17-20 with low weekly mean temperature as well as lag week 1-4 and 17-20 with low cumulative precipitation.

DISCUSSION: As Singapore experienced higher weekly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation in the years 2004-2007, our results signified hazardous impacts of climate factors on the increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue cases. The ongoing global climate change might potentially increase the burden of dengue fever infection in near future.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
CoAction Publishing, 2009. Vol. 2, s. 124-132
Nyckelord [en]
dengue fever, Aedes aegypti, weather, mean temperature, precipitation, climate variability, incidence
Nationell ämneskategori
Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-30928DOI: 10.3402/gha.v2i0.2036ISI: 000208160000041PubMedID: 20052380Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-79954958044OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-30928DiVA, id: diva2:288826
Tillgänglig från: 2010-01-21 Skapad: 2010-01-21 Senast uppdaterad: 2023-03-24Bibliografiskt granskad
Ingår i avhandling
1. Climate and dengue fever: early warning based on temperature and rainfall
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Climate and dengue fever: early warning based on temperature and rainfall
2013 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Background: Dengue is a viral infectious disease that is transmitted by mosquitoes. The disease causes a significant health burden in tropical countries, and has been a public health burden in Singapore for several decades. Severe complications such as hemorrhage can develop and lead to fatal outcomes. Before tetravalent vaccine and drugs are available, vector control is the key component to control dengue transmission. Vector control activities need to be guided by surveillance of outbreak and implement timely action to suppress dengue transmission and limit the risk of further spread. This study aims to explore the feasibility of developing a dengue early warning system using temperature and rainfall as main predictors. The objectives were to 1) analyze the relationship between dengue cases and weather predictors, 2) identify the optimal lead time required for a dengue early warning, 3) develop forecasting models, and 4) translate forecasts to dengue risk indices.

Methods: Poisson multivariate regression models were established to analyze relative risks of dengue corresponding to each unit change of weekly mean temperature and cumulative rainfall at lag of 1-20 weeks. Duration of vector control for localized outbreaks was analyzed to identify the time required by local authority to respond to an early warning. Then, dengue forecasting models were developed using Poisson multivariate regression. Autoregression, trend, and seasonality were considered in the models to account for risk factors other than temperature and rainfall. Model selection and validation were performed using various statistical methods. Forecast precision was analyzed using cross-validation, Receiver Operating Characteristics curve, and root mean square errors. Finally, forecasts were translated into stratified dengue risk indices in time series formats.

Results: Findings showed weekly mean temperature and cumulative rainfall preceded higher relative risk of dengue by 9-16 weeks and that a forecast with at least 3 months would provide sufficient time for mitigation in Singapore. Results showed possibility of predicting dengue cases 1-16 weeks using temperature and rainfall; whereas, consideration of autoregression and trend further enhance forecast precision. Sensitivity analysis showed the forecasting models could detect outbreak and non-outbreak at above 90% with less than 20% false positive. Forecasts were translated into stratified dengue risk indices using color codes and indices ranging from 1-10 in calendar or time sequence formats. Simplified risk indices interpreted forecast according to annual alert and outbreak thresholds; thus, provided uniform interpretation.

Significance: A prediction model was developed that forecasted a prognosis of dengue up to 16 weeks in advance with sufficient accuracy. Such a prognosis can be used as an early warning to enhance evidence-based decision making and effective use of public health resources as well as improved effectiveness of dengue surveillance and control. Simple and clear dengue risk indices improve communications to stakeholders.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Umeå: Umeå University, 2013. s. 61
Serie
Umeå University medical dissertations, ISSN 0346-6612 ; 1554
Nyckelord
dengue fever, temperature, rainfall, forecasting model, early warning, epidemic, dengue risk index
Nationell ämneskategori
Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
Forskningsämne
folkhälsa
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-68040 (URN)978-91-7459-589-5 (ISBN)
Disputation
2013-05-03, Sal 135, Allmänmedicin, Norrlands Universitetssjukhus, Umeå, 13:00 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Forskningsfinansiär
FAS, Forskningsrådet för arbetsliv och socialvetenskap, Grant No. 2006-1512
Tillgänglig från: 2013-04-12 Skapad: 2013-04-11 Senast uppdaterad: 2018-06-08Bibliografiskt granskad

Open Access i DiVA

Climate variability and increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue incidence in Singapore(254 kB)409 nedladdningar
Filinformation
Filnamn FULLTEXT02.pdfFilstorlek 254 kBChecksumma SHA-512
17105384c2677b4e58d0579e1f9a39ce42beb4bc0f412ca77fb7dbd10d58ebf8d6b2e332fe52cf4f8ed738ca0742acae371dd5a501b74099fc1d0a90ad023a77
Typ fulltextMimetyp application/pdf

Övriga länkar

Förlagets fulltextPubMedScopus

Person

Hii, Yien LingRocklöv, JoacimNg, NawiSauerborn, Rainer

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Hii, Yien LingRocklöv, JoacimNg, NawiSauerborn, Rainer
Av organisationen
Epidemiologi och global hälsaYrkes- och miljömedicin
I samma tidskrift
Global Health Action
Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Totalt: 409 nedladdningar
Antalet nedladdningar är summan av nedladdningar för alla fulltexter. Det kan inkludera t.ex tidigare versioner som nu inte längre är tillgängliga.

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Totalt: 540 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf