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Exploring predictors of scientific performance with decision tree analysis: The case of research excellence in early career mathematics
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. (Inforsk)
2016 (English)In: Proceedings of the 21ST International Conference on Science and Technology Indicators / [ed] Ismael Ràfols, Jordi Molas-Gallart, Elena Castro-Martínez, Richard Woolley, 2016, p. 759-765Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this study was (1) to introduce the exploratory method of decision tree analysis as a complementary alternative to current confirmatory methods used in scientometric prediction studies of research performance; and (2) as an illustrative case, to explore predictors of future research excellence at the individual level among 493 early career mathematicians in the sub-field of number theory between 1999 and 2010. A conceptual introduction to decision tree analysis is provided including an overview of the main steps of the tree-building algorithm and the statistical method of cross-validation used to evaluate the performance of decision tree models. A decision tree analysis of 493 mathematicians was conducted to find useful predictors and important relationships between variables in the context of predicting research excellence. The results suggest that the number of prestige journal publications and a topically diverse output are important predictors of future research excellence. Researchers with no prestige journal publications are very unlikely to produce excellent research. Limitations of decision three analysis are discussed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. p. 759-765
Keyword [en]
Decision tree analysis, Performance, Prediction, Exploratory data analysis, Mathematics, Excellence
National Category
Information Studies
Research subject
biblioteks- och informationsvetenskap
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-128876DOI: 10.4995/STI2016.2016.4543ISBN: 978-84-9048-519-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-128876DiVA, id: diva2:1057380
Conference
Science and technology indicators 2016
Available from: 2016-12-17 Created: 2016-12-17 Last updated: 2018-06-09

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Publisher's full texthttp://ocs.editorial.upv.es/index.php/STI2016/STI2016/paper/viewFile/4543/2327

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Lindahl, Jonas

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf