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Physical and Economic Consequences of Sea-Level Rise: A Coupled GIS and CGE Analysis Under Uncertainties
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics. Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics, Umeå, Sweden.
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2016 (English)In: Environmental and Resource Economics, ISSN 0924-6460, E-ISSN 1573-1502, Vol. 65, no 4, 813-839 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper develops a modelling framework that links GEMINI-E3, a multi-regional, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model with a cost-benefit analysis approach at local level using geographical information system tools to assess the physical and economic consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) in the twenty first century. A set of future scenarios is developed spanning the uncertainties related to global warming, the parameters of semi-empirical SLR estimates, and coastal developments (cropland, urban areas and population). The importance of incorporating uncertainties regarding coastal development is highlighted. The simulation results suggest that the potential development of future coastal areas is a greater source of uncertainty than the parameters of SLR itself in terms of the economic consequences of SLR. At global level, the economic impact of SLR could be significant when loss of productive land along with loss of capital and forced displacement of populations are considered. Furthermore, highly urbanised and densely populated coastal areas of South East Asia, Australia and New Zealand are likely to suffer significantly if no protective measures are taken. Hence, it is suggested that coastal areas needs to be protected to ameliorate the overall welfare cost across various regions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2016. Vol. 65, no 4, 813-839 p.
Keyword [en]
Climate change, Sea-level rise, GIS, Computable general equilibrium model, Coastal impacts, Uncertainty, Adaptation
National Category
Economics Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-129718DOI: 10.1007/s10640-015-9927-8ISI: 000389634400007OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-129718DiVA: diva2:1063572
Available from: 2017-01-10 Created: 2017-01-09 Last updated: 2017-01-10Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
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  • asciidoc
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