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Estimating the Value of A New Antibiotic: A Novel Approach Using Esbl As A Case Study
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine. PAREXEL International, Stockholm, Sweden.
2016 (English)In: Value in Health, ISSN 1098-3015, E-ISSN 1524-4733, Vol. 19, no 7, p. A422-A423, article id PIN89Article in journal, Meeting abstract (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Objectives: Develop a model capable of estimating the value of a new antibiotic for use in treating last-line patients not eligible for, or having failed on, all currently available antibiotic treatments.

Methods: Ten annual cohorts of incident last-line patients (total of 314) infected with extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) -producing bacteria were modelled from the onset of the last-line infection over the course of their remaining life, in a scenario where a new antibiotic was available and one where it was not. Efficacy was measured by mortality, where 5% (95%) of patients died due to the infection in the scenario with(out) a new antibiotic. In the scenario with a new antibiotic, the mortality rate increased by 0.5% annually. Costs including lab tests, hospital stays, and productivity loss were calculated in both scenarios. Quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYs) were estimated using weights for patients with an infection (0.61) and after recovery (0.84), in addition to disutility incurred by one caregiver per patient (-0.14). Differences in costs, QALYs, deaths, and days off work were calculated between the two arms; costs and QALYs were discounted to the present year. The value of a new antibiotic is reflected in the incremental results.

Results: In the last-line ESBL population of 314 patients over 10 years, the availability of a new antibiotic resulted in SEK 20.4 million in cost saving, 2795 QALYs gained, 273 fewer infection-caused deaths, and 2198 fewer days off work.

Conclusions: Valuation of a new antibiotic is a high public health priority due to increasing antibiotic resistance and decreasing rates of development of new antibiotics. Access to a new antibiotic for last-line patients provides a large benefit to society, using ESBL as case-study. The results are conservative as they exclude factors that are relatively difficult to estimate such as the risk of an outbreak.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016. Vol. 19, no 7, p. A422-A423, article id PIN89
National Category
Health Care Service and Management, Health Policy and Services and Health Economy
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-134288DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2016.09.440ISI: 000396606300413OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-134288DiVA, id: diva2:1094268
Available from: 2017-05-09 Created: 2017-05-09 Last updated: 2021-08-11Bibliographically approved

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Geale, Kirk

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