Objectives: Develop a model capable of estimating the value of a new antibiotic for use in treating last-line patients not eligible for, or having failed on, all currently available antibiotic treatments.
Methods: Ten annual cohorts of incident last-line patients (total of 314) infected with extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) -producing bacteria were modelled from the onset of the last-line infection over the course of their remaining life, in a scenario where a new antibiotic was available and one where it was not. Efficacy was measured by mortality, where 5% (95%) of patients died due to the infection in the scenario with(out) a new antibiotic. In the scenario with a new antibiotic, the mortality rate increased by 0.5% annually. Costs including lab tests, hospital stays, and productivity loss were calculated in both scenarios. Quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYs) were estimated using weights for patients with an infection (0.61) and after recovery (0.84), in addition to disutility incurred by one caregiver per patient (-0.14). Differences in costs, QALYs, deaths, and days off work were calculated between the two arms; costs and QALYs were discounted to the present year. The value of a new antibiotic is reflected in the incremental results.
Results: In the last-line ESBL population of 314 patients over 10 years, the availability of a new antibiotic resulted in SEK 20.4 million in cost saving, 2795 QALYs gained, 273 fewer infection-caused deaths, and 2198 fewer days off work.
Conclusions: Valuation of a new antibiotic is a high public health priority due to increasing antibiotic resistance and decreasing rates of development of new antibiotics. Access to a new antibiotic for last-line patients provides a large benefit to society, using ESBL as case-study. The results are conservative as they exclude factors that are relatively difficult to estimate such as the risk of an outbreak.
Elsevier, 2016. Vol. 19, no 7, p. A422-A423, article id PIN89