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Development and evaluation of stress tests: Utilizing stress tests to complement the current ex-ante analysis at Second Swedish National Pension Fund
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Stress tests are on a regular basis mentioned on the financial markets where some institutions have to perform it as a regulatory requirement and others have it as an optional way to complement their predictions. Stress tests are used to see how robust a financial instrument or a portfolio are in various scenarios. The challenge is to construct a stress test that is sufficiently extreme, while it is still plausible. The objective of this work is to study various stress testing methods that can be applied at Second Swedish National Pension Fund (AP2) associated with their prediction of market risks. Two different methods are implemented with various scenarios and thus unique analyzes are performed for each method. Hence, the methods are not compared against each other, but each method is analyzed individually with the advantages and disadvantages based on the choice of method and type of scenarios. The results of the first method, historical stress test, shows that the stressed portfolio would decrease in value under the specified scenario. For the second method, coherent stress test, the results vary for the different scenarios. 

Abstract [sv]

På den finansiella marknaden förekommer termen stresstester med jämna mellanrum, där vissa institutioner har det som krav och andra har det som ett frivilligt sätt att komplettera prediktioner. Stresstester används för att mäta hur robust ett finansiellt instrument eller en portfölj är i olika scenarion, där utmaningen blir att konstruera ett stresstest som är relevant och tillräckligt extremt. Målet med arbetet är att studera olika stresstestmetoder som ska kunna bli tillämpade hos Andra AP-fonden (AP2) i samband med deras prediktion av marknadsrisker. Två olika metoder implementeras med olika scenarion och således utförs unika analyser för respektive metod. Därav jämförs inte metoderna mot varandra utan varje metod analyseras individuellt med för- och nackdelar utifrån valet av metod och typen av scenarion. Resultatet för den första metoden, historiskt stresstest, påvisar att portföljen som stressas skulle minska i värde under det specificerade scenariot. För den andra metoden, koherent stresstest, varierar resultatet för de olika scenarierna. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , 50 p.
Keyword [en]
Stress tests, coherent stress test, historical stress test, risk measures
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-134869OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-134869DiVA: diva2:1095443
External cooperation
Andra AP-fonden
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2017-06-07 Created: 2017-05-14 Last updated: 2017-06-07Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf