umu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Annuity Divisors
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This paper studies the differences and similarities between the discrete annuity divisor of the income pension compared to the continuous annuity divisor of the premium pension in Sweden. First discrete and continuous annuity divisors are compared and found to be equivalent given the same underlying mortality.

The income divisor is based on observed mortality in a period setting while the premium divisor which is based on projected mortality in a cohort setting. The expected performance of the two methods is studied by constructing prediction intervals based on Lee-Carter models with either a Binomial or Poisson distribution. Prediction intervals are constructed using either residual bootstrap or parametric bootstrap. The premium annuity divisor is found to outperform the income annuity divisor, there is a large risk that the latter underestimates the future mortality.

Abstract [sv]

Den här uppsatsen studerar skillnader och likheter mellan inkomstpensionens diskreta delningstal och premiepensionens kontinuerliga delningstal i Sverige. Först jämförs diskreta och kontinuerliga delningstal och finns vara likvärdiga när de baseras på samma dödlighet.

Inkomstpensionens delningstal är baserad på observerad period-dödlighet medan premiepensionens delningstal är baserad på projekterad kohort-dödlighet. Prediktionsintervall används för att skatta hur bra de två metoderna är. Med hjälp av Lee-Carter-modellen baserad på antingen poissonfördelning eller binomialfördelning konstrueras prediktionsintervall. Bootstrap, antingen parametrisk eller baserad på residualerna, används för att skapa prediktionsintervallen. Premiumpensionens delningstal stämmer väl överens med prediktionsintervallen medan det för inkomstpensionens delningstal finns en stor risk att framtida dödlighet underskattas.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017.
Keywords [en]
Annuity Divisor, Lee-Carter, Prediction interval, Pension, Life expectancy, Bootstrap, Makeham
Keywords [sv]
Delningstal, Lee-Carter, Prediktionsintervall, Pension, Livslängder, Makeham
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-138767OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-138767DiVA, id: diva2:1137156
Available from: 2017-09-13 Created: 2017-08-30 Last updated: 2017-09-13Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(1881 kB)145 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 1881 kBChecksum SHA-512
56af8d4c5a5e939651a618e1bd2b9b5f9e58e96901ed935c34502113ba3549a89f51850788027551f647378a3a762fe27d1eb6051b273746f6bb9e05747371e1
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics
Probability Theory and Statistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 145 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 141 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf