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An empirical model of the decision to switch between electricity price contracts
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9244-7018
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

We present a novel model for a time series of individual binary decisions that depend on the history of prices. The model is based on the Bayesian learning procedure, which is at the core of sequential decision making.

We show that the model captures dependence on past events and takes precedence in a straightforward fashion, the model captures some dependence on initial condition, here in the form of the prior at the start of the decision period, and that estimation through maximum likelihood is straightforward .

Keywords [en]
Price, Contract Choice, Bayesian Learning, Time Series, Binary Decision, Survival Analysis
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics; marketing
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-141553OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-141553DiVA, id: diva2:1155382
Available from: 2017-11-07 Created: 2017-11-07 Last updated: 2018-06-09

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http://www.usbe.umu.se/digitalAssets/198/198812_ues951.pdf

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Lanot, Gauthier

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf