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Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health. (Umeå Centre for Global Health Research)
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2017 (English)In: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives, ISSN 0091-6765, E-ISSN 1552-9924, Vol. 125, no 10, article id UNSP 107004Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

BACKGROUND: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. METHODS: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. RESULTS: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16 degrees C revealed a relative risk (RR) = 1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st ritui due to climate change.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) , 2017. Vol. 125, no 10, article id UNSP 107004
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Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Pharmacology and Toxicology
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URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-141822DOI: 10.1289/EHP2198ISI: 000413793300016PubMedID: 29017986OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-141822DiVA, id: diva2:1160466
Available from: 2017-11-27 Created: 2017-11-27 Last updated: 2018-06-09Bibliographically approved

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Lohr, WolfgangRocklöv, Joacim

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