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Estimated health benefits of exhaust free transport in the city of Malmö, Southern Sweden
Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department for Laboratory Medicine, Lund University, Sweden..
Dept. of urban studies, Malmö University, Sweden..
Dept. of urban studies, Malmö University, Sweden..
Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department for Laboratory Medicine, Lund University, Sweden..
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2018 (English)In: Environment International, ISSN 0160-4120, E-ISSN 1873-6750, Vol. 118, p. 78-85Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Air pollution is responsible for one in eight premature deaths worldwide, and thereby a major threat to human health. Health impact assessments of hypothetic changes in air pollution concentrations can be used as a mean of assessing the health impacts of policy, plans and projects, and support decision-makers in choices to prevent disease.

The aim of this study was to estimate health impacts attributable to a hypothetical decrease in air pollution concentrations in the city of Malmö in Southern Sweden corresponding to a policy on-road transportations without tail-pipe emissions in the municipality. We used air pollution data modelled for each of the 326,092 inhabitants in Malmö by a Gaussian dispersion model combined with an emission database with >40,000 sources. The dispersion model calculates Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) (later transformed into Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μg/m3 (PM2.5) with high spatial and temporal resolution (85 m and 1 h, respectively).

The average individual reduction was 5.1 (ranging from 0.6 to 11.8) μg/m3 in NO2, which would prevent 55 (2% of all deaths) to 93 (4%) deaths annually, depending on dose-response function used. Furthermore, we estimate that the NO2 reduction would result in 21 (6%) fewer cases of incident asthma in children, 95 (10%) fewer children with bronchitis every year, 30 (1%) fewer hospital admissions for respiratory disease, 87(4%) fewer dementia cases, and 11(11%) fewer cases of preeclampsia every year. The average reduction in PM2.5 of 0.6 (ranging from 0.1 till 1.7) μg/m3 would mean that 2729 (0.3%) work days would not be lost due to sick-days and that there would be 16,472 fewer restricted activity days (0.3%) that year had all on-road transportations been without tail-pipe emissions.

Even though the estimates are sensitive to the dose-response functions used and to exposure misclassification errors, even the most conservative estimate of the number of prevented deaths is 7 times larger than the annual traffic fatalities in Malmö, indicating a substantial possibility to reduce the health burden attributed to tail-pipe emissions in the study area.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. Vol. 118, p. 78-85
Keywords [en]
Health impact assessment, HIA, Health effects, Clean air policy, Air pollution
National Category
Occupational Health and Environmental Health
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-148509DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.035PubMedID: 29807292OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-148509DiVA, id: diva2:1214513
Available from: 2018-06-07 Created: 2018-06-07 Last updated: 2018-06-11

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Oudin, Anna

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