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Climate change accelerates local disease extinction rates in a long-term wild host-pathogen association
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences. State Key Laboratory for Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China; CSIRO Agriculture & Food, Canberra, ACT, Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4792-4986
2018 (English)In: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 24, no 8, p. 3526-3536Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Pathogens are a significant component of all plant communities. In recent years, the potential for existing and emerging pathogens of agricultural crops to cause increased yield losses as a consequence of changing climatic patterns has raised considerable concern. In contrast, the response of naturally occurring, endemic pathogens to a warming climate has received little attention. Here, we report on the impact of a signature variable of global climate change - increasing temperature - on the long-term epidemiology of a natural host-pathogen association involving the rust pathogen Triphragmium ulmariae and its host plant Filipendula ulmaria. In a host-pathogen metapopulation involving approximately 230 host populations growing on an archipelago of islands in the Gulf of Bothnia we assessed changes in host population size and pathogen epidemiological measures over a 25-year period. We show how the incidence of disease and its severity declines over that period and most importantly demonstrate a positive association between a long-term trend of increasing extinction rates in individual pathogen populations of the metapopulation and increasing temperature. Our results are highly suggestive that changing climatic patterns, particularly mean monthly growing season (April-November) temperature, are markedly influencing the epidemiology of plant disease in this host-pathogen association. Given the important role plant pathogens have in shaping the structure of communities, changes in the epidemiology of pathogens have potentially far-reaching impacts on ecological and evolutionary processes. For these reasons, it is essential to increase understanding of pathogen epidemiology, its response to warming, and to invoke these responses in forecasts for the future.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2018. Vol. 24, no 8, p. 3526-3536
Keywords [en]
climate change, epidemiology, extinction, Filipendula ulmaria, longitudinal study, metapopulation, rust, spatial effects, temperature, Triphragmium ulmariae
National Category
Evolutionary Biology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-150649DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14111ISI: 000437284700022PubMedID: 29485725Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85044427233OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-150649DiVA, id: diva2:1242787
Funder
Swedish Research CouncilAvailable from: 2018-08-29 Created: 2018-08-29 Last updated: 2018-08-29Bibliographically approved

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Ericson, Lars

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