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Long-term trajectories of human civilization
Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för datavetenskap.
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2019 (Engelska)Ingår i: Foresight, ISSN 1463-6689, E-ISSN 1465-9832, Vol. 21, nr 1, s. 53-83Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Purpose: This paper aims to formalize long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist.

Design/methodology/approach: This paper focuses on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos.

Findings: Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation and astronomical trajectories appear possible.

Originality/value: Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2019. Vol. 21, nr 1, s. 53-83
Nyckelord [en]
Human civilization, Long-term trajectories
Nationell ämneskategori
Data- och informationsvetenskap Etik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-157756DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0037ISI: 000460758100004Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85061347237OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-157756DiVA, id: diva2:1306434
Tillgänglig från: 2019-04-23 Skapad: 2019-04-23 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-08-27Bibliografiskt granskad

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Totalt: 118 träffar
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