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Association between Weather Types based on the Spatial Synoptic Classification and All-Cause Mortality in Sweden, 1991⁻2014
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Global Health. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0253-5928
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR). (CEDAR)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1561-4094
Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH 4242, USA.
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Global Health. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR).
2019 (English)In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, ISSN 1661-7827, E-ISSN 1660-4601, Vol. 16, no 10, article id 1696Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Much is known about the adverse health impact of high and low temperatures. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is a useful tool for assessing weather effects on health because it considers the combined effect of meteorological factors rather than temperature only. The aim of this study was to assess the association between oppressive weather types and daily total mortality in Sweden. Time-series Poisson regression with distributed lags was used to assess the relationship between oppressive weather (Dry Polar, Dry Tropical, Moist Polar, and Moist Tropical) and daily deaths over 14 days in the extended summer (May to September), and 28 days during the extended winter (November to March), from 1991 to 2014. Days not classified as oppressive weather served as the reference category. We computed relative risks with 95% confidence intervals, adjusting for trends and seasonality. Results of the southern (Skåne and Stockholm) and northern (Jämtland and Västerbotten) locations were pooled using meta-analysis for regional-level estimates. Analyses were performed using the dlnm and mvmeta packages in R. During summer, in the South, the Moist Tropical and Dry Tropical weather types increased the mortality at lag 0 through lag 3 and lag 6, respectively. Moist Polar weather was associated with mortality at longer lags. In the North, Dry Tropical weather increased the mortality at shorter lags. During winter, in the South, Dry Polar and Moist Polar weather increased mortality from lag 6 to lag 10 and from lag 19 to lag 26, respectively. No effect of oppressive weather was found in the North. The effect of oppressive weather types in Sweden varies across seasons and regions. In the North, a small study sample reduces precision of estimates, while in the South, the effect of oppressive weather types is more evident in both seasons.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2019. Vol. 16, no 10, article id 1696
Keywords [en]
Spatial Synoptic Classification, Sweden, all-cause mortality, distributed lag non-linear models, oppressive weather types
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-159094DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16101696PubMedID: 31091805OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-159094DiVA, id: diva2:1316385
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, FR-2017/0009Available from: 2019-05-17 Created: 2019-05-17 Last updated: 2019-07-09Bibliographically approved

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Fonseca Rodriguez, OsvaldoHäggström Lundevaller, ErlingSchumann, Barbara

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