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STATISTICAL FORECASTING FOR CONTRACT PRICING AND AFTERMARKET GROWTH: A master thesis at Scania
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
2019 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 300 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Statistisk prognos för kontraktprissättning och tillväxt på eftermarknaden (Swedish)
##### Abstract [en]

Vehicle maintenance, repair and the after market is a source of revenue for Scania. Statisticalforecasting is used to determine the market situation and make strategic decisions. Sevendifferent statistical models are created and evaluated using R studio. A simulated datasetfrom Scania is used to fit the models. The dataset is divided into a training set and avalidation set. The four first models are created to model repair costs greater than zero.The first model is a linear regression and the second model is a generalized linear model.The third and fourth model linear mixed models, generalized linear mixed models and theyinclude include random effects. Comparing the four models, the generalized linear mixedmodel perform better than the other. Two additional models are fitted to model repaircosts that are zero, those models are binomial regression and count regression where thefirst mentioned perform better. To model costs greater than zero and costs that are zerotogether a hurdle model if fitted. The hurdle model consists of the generalized linear mixedmodel and binomial regression. Lastly the hurdle model and the submodels within it arevalidated using the data set for validation.

2019. , p. 76
Mathematics
##### Identifiers
OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-160048DiVA, id: diva2:1323431
Scania
##### Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering and Management
##### Presentation
2019-06-05, N420, Umeå, 12:15 (Swedish)
##### Examiners
Available from: 2019-06-14 Created: 2019-06-12 Last updated: 2019-06-14Bibliographically approved

#### Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA
##### By organisation
Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics
Mathematics

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Cite
Citation style
• apa
• ieee
• modern-language-association-8th-edition
• vancouver
• Other style
More styles
Language
• de-DE
• en-GB
• en-US
• fi-FI
• nn-NO
• nn-NB
• sv-SE
• Other locale
More languages
Output format
• html
• text
• asciidoc
• rtf