Subjective probability intervals: how to reduce overconfidence by interval evaluation
2004 (English)In: Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory and Cognition, ISSN 0278-7393, E-ISSN 1939-1285, Vol. 30, no 6, 1167-1175 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Format dependence implies that assessment of the same subjective probability distribution produces different conclusions about over- or underconfidence depending on the assessment format. In 2 experiments, the authors demonstrate that the overconfidence bias that occurs when participants produce intervals for an uncertain quantity is almost abolished when they evaluate the probability that the same intervals include the quantity. The authors successfully apply a method for adaptive adjustment of probability intervals as a debiasing tool and discuss a tentative explanation in terms of a naive sampling model. According to this view, people report their experiences accurately, but they are naive in that they treat both sample proportion and sample dispersion as unbiased estimators, yielding small bias in probability evaluation but strong bias in interval production.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Washington: The American psychological association , 2004. Vol. 30, no 6, 1167-1175 p.
Research subject Psychology
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-2553DOI: 10.1037/0278-73184.108.40.2067OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-2553DiVA: diva2:140739