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10-year cumulative incidence of COPD and risk factors for incident disease in a symptomatic cohort
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Medicine.
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2005 (English)In: Chest, ISSN 0012-3692, E-ISSN 1931-3543, Vol. 127, no 5, 1544-1552 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To determine the 10-year cumulative incidence of COPD in a cohort of subjects with respiratory symptoms (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] stage 0) using the British Thoracic Society (BTS) and GOLD spirometric criteria. Furthermore, we sought to evaluate risk and gender factors for incident COPD. DESIGN AND SETTING: A postal questionnaire was administered in 1986 to all 6,610 subjects in eight areas of northern Sweden who had been born in 1919 to 1920 (group 1), 1934 to 1935 (group 2), and 1949 to 1950 (group 3). The response rate was 86%. All of the subjects reporting respiratory symptoms were invited to participate in a structured interview and pulmonary function test (PFT), and 1,506 (91%) participated. In 1996, 90% could be traced for follow-up, of whom 1,165 (86%) of the invited subjects participated and 1,109 subjects (534 women) were able to perform technically adequate PFTs in both 1986 and 1996. RESULTS: The 10-year cumulative incidence of COPD was estimated at 8.2% (using BTS criteria) and 13.5% (using GOLD criteria). Significant risk factors for incident COPD (using BTS and GOLD criteria) in a multivariate analysis were higher age (group 1 odds ratio [OR]: BTS criteria, 3.49; GOLD criteria, 3.37; group 2 OR: BTS criteria, 4.50; GOLD criteria, 5.70) and smoking (OR: BTS criteria, 5.37; GOLD criteria, 4.56), but not gender or heredity. Respiratory symptoms were significantly associated with incident COPD when added to the same model. In analogous analyses that were conducted separately for men and women, smoking yielded an OR of 8.52 among women (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.43 to 21.2) compared with 3.14 among men (95% CI, 1.26 to 7.84). The symptoms cough, sputum production, and chronic productive cough reached statistical significance in women, while dyspnea and wheeze did so in men. CONCLUSION: In this cohort, the 10-year cumulative incidence of COPD was 8.2% (using BTS criteria) and 13.5% (using GOLD criteria). Increasing age, smoking, and bronchitic symptoms, but not gender, were risk factors for incident COPD. GOLD stage 0 therefore appears to identify subjects who are at risk of COPD, but men and women presented different risk profiles.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2005. Vol. 127, no 5, 1544-1552 p.
National Category
Medical and Health Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-4192DOI: 10.1378/chest.127.5.1544PubMedID: 15888826OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-4192DiVA: diva2:143187
Available from: 2004-11-02 Created: 2004-11-02 Last updated: 2012-08-29Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): prevalence, incidence, decline in lung function and risk factors
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): prevalence, incidence, decline in lung function and risk factors
2004 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden (OLIN) Studies started in 1985 as an epidemiological project with the aim to detect preventable risk factors for obstructive lung diseases and allergy. In recent years there has been a focus also on obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome (OSAS) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) besides asthma and allergy. The aim of this thesis was to estimate the prevalence and incidence of COPD, risk factors for COPD, and decline in lung function in relation to COPD.

The OLIN cohort I (cI) was recruited in 1985/86 and consisted of all 6610 subjects born 1919-20, 1934-35 and 1949-50 in eight geographical areas of Norrbotten. A postal questionnaire survey was performed in 1985/86, 1992 and in 1996. All subjects reporting respiratory symptoms at the questionnaire in 1985/86 were invited to examination in 1986, 1996 and 2002-03. A random sample of 1500 subjects from the participants at the 1996 postal questionnaire survey was invited to examination in 1996 and 2003. The participation rate has been high, ≥85%. The OLIN cohort III (cIII) was recruited in 1992, a postal questionnaire was sent to a random sample of 5681 subjects aged 20-69 years. In 1994/95 a random sample of 970 subjects were invited to examination of whom 666 participated.

The prevalence of COPD in the general population sample (cIII) in ages <45 was 4.1%, 11.6%, 9.1%, and 5.1% according to the criteria of BTS1 , ERS2 , GOLD3 , and ATS4 respectively. The corresponding figures in ages ≥45 were 9.7%, 15.4%, 17.1%, and 16.5% respectively. In the age-stratified general population sample (>45 y, cI), the prevalence was 8.1% and 14.3% according to the BTS and GOLD criteria. The prevalence was strongly associated with higher age and smoking but not gender. The prevalence among smokers 76-77 years old was 45% and 50% (BTS and GOLD criteria). A majority of subjects with COPD had respiratory symptoms (in prevalent BTS 94%), most commonly cough and sputum production. Nearly a half of the subjects with COPD had contacted health care due to respiratory complaints other than common colds, but only a minority reported a physician diagnosis relevant for COPD (16% of prevalent COPD according to BTS in cIII, 31% in cI). The 10-year cumulative incidence of COPD (1986-1996) was estimated at 8.2% (BTS) and 13.5% (GOLD) in the symptomatics of cI, associated with higher age and smoking but not gender. Persistent smoking, male gender and reported chronic productive cough were associated with a faster decline in FEV1. Among incident cases of COPD a large proportion (23% of incident BTS) had a rapid decline in FEV1, >90 ml/year, corresponding to a decrease of 28 percent-units of normal value during ten years.The 7-year cumulative incidence of COPD in the random sample of cI (1996-2003) was estimated at 4.9% and 11.0% (NICE guidelines5 and GOLD) and associated with smoking but not gender. The incidence according to GOLD, but not NICE, was associated with increasing age. In multi-variate analysis most respiratory symptoms were markers of increased risk for developing COPD.

In conclusion, the prevalence and the incidence of COPD were associated with age and smoking and affected by the use of different spirometric criteria. Respiratory symptoms marked an increased risk for developing COPD. A high proportion of subjects developing COPD had a rapid decline in lung function. Further, there was a substantial underdiagnosis of COPD.

1 British Thoracic Society: FEV1/VC<0.70 & FEV1<80%predicted (pred), 2 European Respiratory Society: FEV1/VC<88%pred in men, <89%pred in women, 3 Global initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease:FEV1/FVC<0.70, 4 American Thoracic Society: FEV1/FVC<0.75 + symptoms or physician diagnosis, 5 The British National Institute for Clinical Excellence: FEV1/FVC<0.70 & FEV1<80%pred.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, 2004. 80 p.
Series
Umeå University medical dissertations, ISSN 0346-6612 ; 927
Keyword
Medicine, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Prevalence, Incidence, Decline in Lung Function, Risk Factors, Medicin
National Category
Dermatology and Venereal Diseases
Research subject
Lung Medicine
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-347 (URN)91-7305-756-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2004-11-19, Aulan, Sunderby Sjukhus, 971 80 Luleå, Luleå, 09:00
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2004-11-02 Created: 2004-11-02 Last updated: 2010-08-05Bibliographically approved

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