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Impact of climate warming on phenological asynchrony of plankton dynamics across Europe
Limnological Institute, University of Constance, Constance, Germany.
Limnological Institute, University of Constance, Constance, Germany.
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences. Integrated Science Lab—IceLab, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3860-5051
CSIRO Land and Water, Acton, Australia.
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2023 (English)In: Ecology Letters, ISSN 1461-023X, E-ISSN 1461-0248, Vol. 26, no 5, p. 717-728Article in journal, Letter (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate warming alters the seasonal timing of biological events. This raises concerns that species-specific responses to warming may de-synchronize co-evolved consumer-resource phenologies, resulting in trophic mismatch and altered ecosystem dynamics. We explored the effects of warming on the synchrony of two events: the onset of the phytoplankton spring bloom and the spring/summer maximum of the grazer Daphnia. Simulation of 16 lake types over 31 years at 1907 North African and European locations under 5 climate scenarios revealed that the current median phenological delay between the two events varies greatly (20–190 days) across lake types and geographic locations. Warming moves both events forward in time and can lengthen or shorten the delay between them by up to ±60 days. Our simulations suggest large geographic and lake-specific variations in phenological synchrony, provide quantitative predictions of its dependence on physical lake properties and geographic location and highlight research needs concerning its ecological consequences.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2023. Vol. 26, no 5, p. 717-728
Keywords [en]
climate change, Daphnia, phenology, phytoplankton, regional modelling
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-205796DOI: 10.1111/ele.14190ISI: 000943587500001PubMedID: 36870064Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85149523435OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-205796DiVA, id: diva2:1746372
Funder
Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, 2016.0083Swedish Research Council, 2018-04726Available from: 2023-03-28 Created: 2023-03-28 Last updated: 2024-07-02Bibliographically approved

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Diehl, Sebastian

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