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How to handle negative interest rates in a CIR framework
UnipolSai Assicurazioni, Bologna, Italy.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1564-440X
Dipartimento di Matematica, Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2881-0905
2021 (English)In: SeMA Journal, ISSN 2254-3902, Vol. 79, no 4, p. 593-618Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we propose a new model to address the problem of negative interest rates that preserves the analytical tractability of the original Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) model without introducing a shift to the market interest rates, because it is defined as the difference of two independent CIR processes. The strength of our model lies within the fact that it is very simple and can be calibrated to the market zero yield curve using an analytical formula. We run several numerical experiments at two different dates, once with a partially sub-zero interest rate and once with a fully negative interest rate. In both cases, we obtain good results in the sense that the model reproduces the market term structures very well. We then simulate the model using the Euler–Maruyama scheme and examine the mean, variance and distribution of the model. The latter agrees with the skewness and fat tail seen in the original CIR model. In addition, we compare the model’s zero coupon prices with market prices at different future points in time. Finally, we test the market consistency of the model by evaluating swaptions with different tenors and maturities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2021. Vol. 79, no 4, p. 593-618
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-207729DOI: 10.1007/s40324-021-00267-wScopus ID: 2-s2.0-85116206267OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-207729DiVA, id: diva2:1753872
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 813261Available from: 2023-05-01 Created: 2023-05-01 Last updated: 2023-05-02Bibliographically approved

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Kamm, Kevin

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CiteExportLink to record
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