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Economic Capital Models: Methods for fitting loss distributions
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
2023 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

The thesis provides a well-researched classical approach to fit and predict the losses (extreme) for Lloyds Bank’s Dutch mortgage portfolio, their defaulted Dutch mortgage portfolio, and their German personal and car loan portfolio. This is a crucial piece for quantification of the economic loss, required for effective credit risk management by the Bank. For starters, the distribution of losses needs to be defined in order to determine the amount of losses that a bank can possibly experience in an event that corresponds to a specific confidence level. To get to that point, the data needs to be approximated with either one or more distributions, this thesis covers the single distribution approach and the mixture model approach that uses two distributions to solve the approximation of the data. Our work concludes that the optimal distribution for the regular Dutch mortgage portfolio losses include a Beta-Beta mixture and a Lognormal-Gamma mixture. Where the Lognormal-Gamma mixture has utilized a threshold approach that splits the data into two separate data sets and then fits the data separately before combining them with a weight function. While, for the second Dutch mortgage portfolio at the specific snapshots, the Beta and the Generalized Pareto outperformed the rest. Furthermore, for the German personal and car loan portfolio, the Generalized Pareto also performed the best. This is a crucial step for calculating the necessary economic capital that Lloyds Banking Group plans to do in the near future.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023. , p. 71
Keywords [en]
Economic Capital, Distribution fitting, MCMC
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-209861OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-209861DiVA, id: diva2:1768086
External cooperation
Lloyds Banking Group
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2023-06-15 Created: 2023-06-14 Last updated: 2023-06-15Bibliographically approved

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Economic Capital Models(1068 kB)1363 downloads
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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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More styles
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  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
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