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A cross-validation-based statistical theory for point processes
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6721-8608
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3905-4498
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark.
2024 (English)In: Biometrika, ISSN 0006-3444, E-ISSN 1464-3510, Vol. 111, no 2, p. 625-641Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Motivated by the general ability of cross-validation to reduce overfitting and mean square error, we develop a cross-validation-based statistical theory for general point processes. It is based on the combination of two novel concepts for general point processes: cross-validation and prediction errors. Our cross-validation approach uses thinning to split a point process/pattern into pairs of training and validation sets, while our prediction errors measure discrepancy between two point processes. The new statistical approach, which may be used to model different distributional characteristics, exploits the prediction errors to measure how well a given model predicts validation sets using associated training sets. Having indicated that our new framework generalizes many existing statistical approaches, we then establish different theoretical properties for it, including large sample properties. We further recognize that nonparametric intensity estimation is an instance of Papangelou conditional intensity estimation, which we exploit to apply our new statistical theory to kernel intensity estimation. Using independent thinning-based cross-validation, we numerically show that the new approach substantially outperforms the state-of-the-art in bandwidth selection. Finally, we carry out intensity estimation for a dataset in forestry and a dataset in neurology.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2024. Vol. 111, no 2, p. 625-641
Keywords [en]
Kernel intensity estimation, Papangelou conditional intensity, Prediction, Spatial statistics, Thinning
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-218935DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asad041ISI: 001076837500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85193377698OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-218935DiVA, id: diva2:1823812
Note

First published online: 27 June 2023

Errata: Correction to: 'A cross-validation-based statistical theory for point processes', Biometrika, Volume 111, Issue 1, March 2024, Page 365, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asad077

Available from: 2024-01-03 Created: 2024-01-03 Last updated: 2024-06-10Bibliographically approved

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Moradi, Mehdi

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