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Refining risk prediction in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia through DNA methylation profiling
Department of Hematology, University Hospital of Santiago de Compostela, Compostela, Spain; Health Research Institute of Santiago de Compostela, Compostela, Spain.
Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Precision Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Health Research Institute of Santiago de Compostela, Compostela, Spain.
Department of Hematology, University Hospital of Santiago de Compostela, Compostela, Spain; Health Research Institute of Santiago de Compostela, Compostela, Spain.
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2024 (English)In: Clinical Epigenetics, E-ISSN 1868-7083, Vol. 16, no 1, article id 49Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most prevalent cancer in children, and despite considerable progress in treatment outcomes, relapses still pose significant risks of mortality and long-term complications. To address this challenge, we employed a supervised machine learning technique, specifically random survival forests, to predict the risk of relapse and mortality using array-based DNA methylation data from a cohort of 763 pediatric ALL patients treated in Nordic countries. The relapse risk predictor (RRP) was constructed based on 16 CpG sites, demonstrating c-indexes of 0.667 and 0.677 in the training and test sets, respectively. The mortality risk predictor (MRP), comprising 53 CpG sites, exhibited c-indexes of 0.751 and 0.754 in the training and test sets, respectively. To validate the prognostic value of the predictors, we further analyzed two independent cohorts of Canadian (n = 42) and Nordic (n = 384) ALL patients. The external validation confirmed our findings, with the RRP achieving a c-index of 0.667 in the Canadian cohort, and the RRP and MRP achieving c-indexes of 0.529 and 0.621, respectively, in an independent Nordic cohort. The precision of the RRP and MRP models improved when incorporating traditional risk group data, underscoring the potential for synergistic integration of clinical prognostic factors. The MRP model also enabled the definition of a risk group with high rates of relapse and mortality. Our results demonstrate the potential of DNA methylation as a prognostic factor and a tool to refine risk stratification in pediatric ALL. This may lead to personalized treatment strategies based on epigenetic profiling.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
BioMed Central (BMC), 2024. Vol. 16, no 1, article id 49
Keywords [en]
Artificial intelligence, DNA methylation, Epigenetics, Machine learning, Mortality risk, Pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia, Precision medicine, Relapse risk
National Category
Cancer and Oncology Hematology Pediatrics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-222893DOI: 10.1186/s13148-024-01662-6ISI: 001195121800001PubMedID: 38549146Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85188787396OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-222893DiVA, id: diva2:1848855
Funder
Swedish Childhood Cancer FoundationSwedish Cancer SocietySwedish Research CouncilSwedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC)Available from: 2024-04-04 Created: 2024-04-04 Last updated: 2024-04-11Bibliographically approved

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Norén-Nyström, Ulrika

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