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Advancing Credit Risk Analysis through Machine Learning Techniques: Utilizing Predictive Modeling to Enhance Financial Decision-Making and Risk Assessment
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
2024 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Assessment of credit risk is crucial for the financial stability of banks, directly influencing their lending policies and economic resilience. This thesis explores advanced techniques for predictive modeling of Loss Given Default (LGD) and credit losses within major Swedish banks, with a focus on sophisticated methods in statistics and machine learning. The study specifically evaluates the effectiveness of various models, including linear regression, quantile regression, extreme gradient boosting, and ANN, to address the complexity of LGD’s bimodal distribution and the non-linearity in credit loss data. Key findings highlight the robustness of ANN and XGBoost in modeling complex data patterns, offering significant improvements over traditional linear models. The research identifies critical macroeconomic indicators—such as real estate prices, inflation, and unemployment rates—through an Elastic Net model, underscoring their predictive power in assessing credit risks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. , p. 57
Keywords [en]
Credit Risk, Loss Given Default, Credit Loss, Quantile Regression, Machine Learning, ANN, XGBoost
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-226128OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-226128DiVA, id: diva2:1869519
External cooperation
Svenska Handelsbanken AB
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2024-06-14 Created: 2024-06-13 Last updated: 2024-06-14Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf