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Is the Eurozone Beneficial?: An empirical analysis of the currency union's effects on trade within the EMU
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
2024 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This paper examines the effect of the common currency, euro, on trade within the European member union (EMU) members. Using a panel dataset of the 27 current member states of the European Union (EU) for the period 1995-2021, I estimate the trade effect by comparing countries that use the euro and those who are using another currency. To be able to analyse the effect, this paper will apply four different estimating models based on the gravity model: basic model, Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator (PPML) and afterwards examine the short- and long-term effects of being a part of the Eurozone by implementing a partial adjustment model and an error correction model. The paper estimates the effect of the euro when it was introduced as a fixed exchange rate, and secondly, the effect of adopting euro coins and notes. However, the paper will focus on the cumulative effects of the euro, as the individual effects are only identified for Denmark and countries that joined the eurozone between 1999 and 2002, which covers only a few years. For all estimating models, the point estimates of the joint effect of both fixed exchange rate and having common coins and notes are negative but differs in their significance. However, the prioritization of the paper is to focus on the results of the error correction model due to its consideration of dynamic effects and the model fit. The error correction model could not find any evidence that the euro boosted the short and long-effects on the bilateral trade within the EMU, since the results were statistically insignificant. In contradiction, the empirical results indicate that the EU membership had a substantial and significant positive impact on the bilateral trade.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024.
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-226726OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-226726DiVA, id: diva2:1874359
Available from: 2024-06-20 Created: 2024-06-20 Last updated: 2024-06-20Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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Language
  • de-DE
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  • nn-NB
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