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Mirroring a Polycrisis: A Multi-Country Analysis of How the Collective Crises of COVID-19 Pandemic, Climate Change, and Conflict are Affecting Economic Growth, Unemployment, Poverty, and the Role of Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
2024 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This study explores the impact of COVID -19 pandemic, climate change, and conflict on economic growth, unemployment, and poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa, and evaluates the mitigating role of effective governance in the face of these crises. Using panel data from 39 countries for the period 2010 through 2022, the study employs three models to facilitate the analysis which include the first-difference, pooled OLS, and fixed effects models. From the first difference model the findings reveal that stringent COVID-19 measures are positively associated with a short-term rise in unemployment. Effective governance and increased trade are negatively associated with unemployment. While the pandemic’s impact on poverty appears negative in the pooled OLS model potentially due to short-term social safety nets, effective governance and increased trade are consistently associated with a reduction in poverty rates. Climate change shows a counterintuitive negative association with poverty, possibly reflecting data limitations or short-term aid following climate related disasters. The fixed effects model confirms a negative impact of COVID -19 on economic growth. Effective governance and increased trade are positively associated with economic growth. Just as expected, the interaction terms between climate change, conflict, and governance suggest that effective governance can mitigate the negative combined effects of climate change and conflict on economic growth.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024.
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-227075OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-227075DiVA, id: diva2:1876785
Available from: 2024-06-25 Created: 2024-06-25 Last updated: 2024-06-25Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf