Umeå University's logo

umu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Avancerade Metoder För Riskbedömning i Finansiell Kapitalförvaltning
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Physics.
2024 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Advanced Methods for Risk Assessment in Financial Asset Management (English)
Abstract [en]

For companies in finance like hedge funds, banks and other investors two of the most essential parts is profit and loss (P&L) and risk. Companies want to maximize profits while obtaining a risk as low as possible. However, the crux that then occurs is that there is a direct correlation between the risk and potential return of assets forcing investors to take higher risks to be able to obtain their desired profits. In this thesis the historical transactions of a hedge funds trades where inspected. A program that went through the transactions to create daily portfolios and track profit and loss was created. Then a program conducting multiple risk calculations such as value at risk (VaR) in multiple ways, calculation of Sharpe-ratio and mean-volatility diagram as well as scenario analysis were created. Two sub-portfolios, sub-portfolio A and sub-portfolio M were then obtained at a randomly chosen date from the daily portfolios previously created. A risk analysis was then conducted on these two sub-portfolios using the program created earlier. Lastly two different investment strategies, Risk-parity and a momentum strategy were applied with the same investment possibilities as sub-portfolio A to enable comparison between strategies. When analysing the risk calculations conducted on the two sub-portfolios it was found that sub-portfolio A had a slightly higher risk and a slightly higher volatility than sub-portfolio M. This was seen in both the VaR calculations and the scenario analysis. However sub-portfolio M had a larger downside than sub-portfolio A during the scenario from 2007-2009. This could however be due to the sub-portfolio M only containing stocks which was hit harder during the crash of 2008 while sub-portfolio A is based on the commodity market. It was also found that both sub-portfolios had potential for improving their expected returns in regard to the sharpe-calculations. And that both sub-portfolios could take advantage of the more advanced VaR-GARCH model to hinder large losses. When also investigating how the performance of the different strategies and comparing them with the performance of sub-portfolio A it was found that both the risk-parity strategy and the momentum strategy were less volatile and having a smaller risk but consequently had a lower potential for high profits than sub-portfolio A. The positive gains of sub-portfolio A makes it more attractive, however the high risk shows that the portfolio at times had a nominal value of less than zero which is a concern from a investors point of view. After analysing the results, we can say that it is clear that high risk correlates to higher potential returns, which was known. The choice of assets in a portfolio is also more important when constructing a portfolio with a higher risk level to ensure profits. We can also claim that a portfolio with a risk level around 3-3.5% might be a bit low and a bit higher risk at 7-8% would be more sufficient for the hedge found to gain better profits. As for the sub-portfolios it could be of interest to investigate the sharpe ratios if there is a possibility to obtain a higher profit at the same risk since the efficient frontier in the mean-volatility plots points to this possibility. Lastly, we have to point out that this analysis is only conducted on a few sets of portfolios and a few sets of strategies. This may lead to the result not being viable in all cases, which prompts the reader to handle these results with care, especially when dealing with capital.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. , p. 51
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-231044OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-231044DiVA, id: diva2:1906961
External cooperation
Antiloop Hedge
Subject / course
Examensarbete i teknisk fysik
Educational program
Master of Science Programme in Engineering Physics
Examiners
Available from: 2024-10-21 Created: 2024-10-21 Last updated: 2024-10-21Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(2709 kB)63 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 2709 kBChecksum SHA-512
cfee9b7620db4123de9e6d30e88020e83f4a7276a38e6e02321953971d9b4b3ae1a7cb0d51253e44828bc9333d4057c2244f193b6eb80d3eb1d6a1f1eca200f2
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Department of Physics
Mathematics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 63 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 148 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf