Prediction of cancer incidence
1998 (English)Report (Other academic)
In this paper a method for predicting future number of cancer diagnoses is derived. The method is based on estimation of the cumulative hazard of cancer diagnosis and cumulative hazard of population mortality. The estimation of cancer hazard is done non-parametrically, while the population death hazard is assumed to follow the Gompertz-Makeham distribution. The prediction is based on the assumption that cancer incidence and population mortality in the prediction intervals are derived. Also, prediction intervals, based on non-parametric bootstrap, are presented. The method is applied to predict number of colon cancer diagnoses among females in the northern part of Sweden. It has shown to detect and adjust for changes in population age structure, and to provide good predictions in situation where the cancer incidence and population mortality are stable during the prediction period.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik, Umeå universitet , 1998. , 24 p.
cancer incidence, population mortality, prediction, cumulative hazard rate, counting process, martingale, non-parametric bootstrap
Probability Theory and Statistics Cancer and Oncology
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-25131OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-25131DiVA: diva2:228958
Distributor:Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik, 90187, Umeå