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Effects of climate change on tularemia disease activity in Sweden
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics. (Computational Life Science Cluster (CLiC))
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Clinical Bacteriology.
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Clinical Bacteriology. Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Infectious Diseases.
2009 (English)In: Global Health Action, ISSN 1654-9880, Vol. 2Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Tularaemia is a vector-borne infectious disease. A large majority of cases transmitted to humans by bloodfeeding arthropods occur during the summer season and is linked to increased temperatures. Therefore, the effect of climate change is likely to have an effect on tularaemia transmission patterns in highly endemic areas of Sweden. In this report, we use simulated climate change scenario data and empirical data of temperatures critical to tularaemia transmission to forecast tularaemia outbreak activity. The five high-endemic counties: Dalarna, Gävleborg, Norrbotten, Värmland and Örebro represent only 14.6% of the total population of Sweden, but have recorded 40.1-81.1% of the number of annual human tularaemia in Sweden from 1997 until 2008. We project here earlier starts and a later termination of future tularaemia outbreaks for the time period 2010-2100. For five localised outbreak areas; Gagnef (Dalarna), Ljusdal (Gävleborg), Harads (Norrbotten), Karlstad (Värmland) and Örebro municipality (Örebro), the climate scenario suggests an approximately 2°C increase in monthly average summer temperatures leading to increases in outbreak durations ranging from 3.5 weeks (Harads) to 6.6 weeks (Karlstad) between 2010 and 2100. In contrast, an analysis of precipitation scenarios indicates fairly stable projected levels of precipitation during the summer months. Thus, there should not be an increased abundance of late summer mosquitoes that are believed to be main vectors for transmission to humans in these areas. In conclusion, the results indicate that the future climate changes will lead to an increased burden of tularaemia in high-endemic areas of Sweden during the coming decades.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 2
Keyword [en]
tularaemia; climate; epidemiology; models; statistical; temperature; rain; forecast; Sweden; Francisella tularensis
National Category
Medical and Health Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-30808PubMedID: 20052432OAI: diva2:287195
Available from: 2010-01-18 Created: 2010-01-18 Last updated: 2012-09-07

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