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Exploiting temporal network structures of human interaction to effectively immunize populations
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Physics. (IceLab)
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Physics. (IceLab)
Department of Sociology, Stockholm University.
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Physics. (IceLab)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2156-1096
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

If we can lower the number of people needed to vaccinate for a community to be immune against contagious diseases, we can save resources and life. A key to reach such a lower threshold of immunization is to find and vaccinate people who, through their behavior, are more likely to become infected and effective to spread the disease than the average. Fortunately, the very behavior that makes these people important to vaccinate can help us finding them. People you have met recently are more likely to be socially active and thus central in the contact pattern, and important to vaccinate. We propose two immunization schemes exploiting temporal contact patterns. Both of these rely only on obtainable, local information and could implemented in practice. We show that these schemes outperform benchmark protocols in four real data sets under various epidemic scenarios. The data sets are dynamic, which enables us to make more realistic evaluations than other studies - we use information only about the past to perform the vaccination and the future to simulate disease outbreaks. We also use models to elucidate the mechanisms behind how the temporal structures make our immunization protocols efficient.

Keyword [en]
vaccination protocol, epidemics, contact network
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Other Physics Topics
Research subject
Epidemiology; Public health
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-46587OAI: diva2:439200
Available from: 2011-09-06 Created: 2011-09-06 Last updated: 2013-09-06Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Exploring patterns of empirical networks
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploring patterns of empirical networks
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Alternative title[sv]
Utforska mönster av empiriska nätverk
Abstract [en]

We are constantly struggling to understand how nature works, trying to identify recurrent events and looking for analogies and relations between objects or individuals. Knowing patterns of behavior is powerful and fundamental for survival of any species. In this thesis, datasets of diverse systems related to transportation, economics, sexual and social contacts, are characterized by using the formalisms of time series and network theory. Part of the results consists on the collection and analyzes of original network data, the rest focuses on the simulation of dynamical processes on these networks and to study how they are affected by the particular structures. The majority of the thesis is about temporal networks, i.e. networks whose structure changes in time. The new temporal dimension reveals structural dynamical properties that help to understand the feedback mechanisms responsible to make the network structure to adapt and to understand the emergence and inhibition of diverse phenomena in dynamic systems, as epidemics in sexual and contact networks.

Abstract [sv]

Vi är ständigt kämpar för att förstå hur naturen fungerar, försöker identifier återkommande evenemang och söker analogier och relationer mellan objekt eller individer. Veta beteendemönster är kraftfull och grundläggande för överlevnad av arter. I denna avhandling, dataset av olika system i samband med transporter är ekonomi, sexuella och sociala kontakter, som kännetecknas av att använda formalismer av tidsserier och nätverk teori. En del av resultatet utgörs av insamling och analys av ursprungliga nätdata, fokuserar resten på simulering av dynamiska processer i dessa nätverk och att studera hur de påverkas av de särskilda strukturer. Huvuddelen av avhandlingen handlar om tidsmässiga nät, i.e. nät vars struktur förändringar i tid. Den nya tidsdimensionen avslöjar strukturella dynamiska egenskaper som hjälper till att förstå den feedback mekanismer som ansvarar för att göra nätverksstruktur att anpassa sig och förstå uppkomsten och hämning av olika företeelser i dynamiska system, epidemier i sexuella och kontaktnät.

Abstract [pt]

Constantemente nos esforçamos para entender como a natureza funciona, tentando identificar eventos recorrentes e procurando por analogias e relações entre objetos ou indivíduos. Conhecer padrões de comportamento é algo poderoso e fundamental para a sobrevivência de qualquer espécie. Nesta tese, dados de sistemas diversos, relacionados a transporte, economia, contatos sexuais e sociais, são caracterizados usando o formalismo de séries temporais e teoria de redes. Uma parte dos resultados consiste na coleta e análise de dados de redes originais, a outra parte concentra-se na simulação de processos dinâmicos nessas redes e no estudo de como esses processos são afetados por determinadas estruturas. A maior parte da tese é sobre redes temporais, ou seja, redes cuja estrutura varia no tempo. A nova dimensão temporal revela propriedades estruturais dinâmicas que contribuem para o entendimento dos mecanismos de resposta responsáveis pela adaptação da rede, e para o entendimento da emergência e inibição de fenômenos diversos em sistemas dinâmicos, como epidemias em redes sexuais e de contato pessoal.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Umeå University, Department of Physics, 2011. 66 p.
complex systems, complex networks, network analysis, empirical networks, air transportation, consumer complaints, information technology, sexual contacts, epidemics, vaccination
National Category
Other Physics Topics Other Physics Topics Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Computer and Information Science
Research subject
Physics; Statistics; Epidemiology; Economics
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-46588 (URN)978-91-7459-241-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2011-09-30, Naturvetarhuset, N300, Umeå universitet, Umeå, 13:30 (English)
Available from: 2011-09-08 Created: 2011-09-06 Last updated: 2011-09-08Bibliographically approved

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Rocha, Luis E CHolme, Petter
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