umu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Outbreaks of tularemia in a boreal forest region depends on mosquito prevalence
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Clinical Bacteriology. Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics. (Computational Life Science Cluster (CLiC))
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics. Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Clinical Bacteriology.
Show others and affiliations
2012 (English)In: Journal of Infectious Diseases, ISSN 0022-1899, E-ISSN 1537-6613, Vol. 205, no 2, 297-304 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background. We aimed to evaluate the potential association of mosquito prevalence in a boreal forest area with transmission of the bacterial disease tularemia to humans, and model the annual variation of disease using local weather data.

Methods. A prediction model for mosquito abundance was built using weather and mosquito catch data. Then a negative binomial regression model based on the predicted mosquito abundance and local weather data was built to predict annual numbers of humans contracting tularemia in Dalarna County, Sweden.

Results. Three hundred seventy humans were diagnosed with tularemia between 1981 and 2007, 94% of them during 7 summer outbreaks. Disease transmission was concentrated along rivers in the area. The predicted mosquito abundance was correlated (0.41, P < .05) with the annual number of human cases. The predicted mosquito peaks consistently preceded the median onset time of human tularemia (temporal correlation, 0.76; P < .05). Our final predictive model included 5 environmental variables and identified 6 of the 7 outbreaks.

Conclusions. This work suggests that a high prevalence of mosquitoes in late summer is a prerequisite for outbreaks of tularemia in a tularemia-endemic boreal forest area of Sweden and that environmental variables can be used as risk indicators.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. Vol. 205, no 2, 297-304 p.
Keyword [en]
francisella-tularensis; sweden; regression; culicidae; diptera
National Category
Immunology in the medical area Microbiology in the medical area Infectious Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-50328DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jir732PubMedID: 22124130OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-50328DiVA: diva2:462084
Available from: 2011-12-06 Created: 2011-12-06 Last updated: 2017-12-08Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMed

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Rydén, PatrikBjörk, RafaelSjöstedt, AndersJohansson, Anders
By organisation
Clinical BacteriologyDepartment of Mathematics and Mathematical StatisticsInfectious Diseases
In the same journal
Journal of Infectious Diseases
Immunology in the medical areaMicrobiology in the medical areaInfectious Medicine

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Total: 345 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf