Europas temperaturklimat under det senaste millenniet: En jämförelse av resultat från en regional klimatmodell med proxydata och observationsdata
Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
European temperature climate during the last Millennium : A comparison of results from a regional climate model with proxy data and observational data (English)
The aim of this study was to evaluate the Rossby Centre regional climate model (RCA3) for the time period AD 951-1998, to find how well it can reproduce the near-surface temperature climate in Europe. The lateral boundary conditions in the model came from the global climate model ECHO-G, which was forced by solar variability, changes in greenhouse gases and changes in orbital parameters. Results from the regional model were compared to five proxy-based temperature reconstructions from different parts of Europe, with respect to average temperatures, variability and correlation during the last Millennium and during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. The utility of the reconstructions was tested by comparison to instrumental temperature observations from the Climate Research Unit from AD 1901-2009, which showed that not only temperature explains the variability in the proxy series. The correlation between the proxy series from the Alpine region was weak, which indicated a different development of temperatures over time. On the contrary, both temperature observations and model results showed a high degree of correlation between the locations in the proxy series. RCA3 showed lower temperatures in comparison to all the reconstructions. The warmest 100-year period in RCA3 never coincided with the warmest 100-year period in the reconstructions, and the coldest periods only coincided in two cases. The poor agreement between RCA3 and proxy data is interpreted partly as a consequence of deficiencies and error margins in the proxy reconstructions. Model errors and simplified treatment of forcing conditions also contributes to the discrepancies.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. , 45 p.
Climate modeling, RCA3, proxy data, temperature, Europe
Klimatmodellering, RCA3, proxydata, temperatur, Europa
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-54236OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-54236DiVA: diva2:517205
Subject / course
Examensarbete i Naturgeografi för kandidatexamen
2012-03-28, Umeå Universitet, 09:00 (Swedish)
UppsokLife Earth Science
Kjellström, Erik, Docent/klimatforskare SMHIBigler, Christian, Universitetslektor
Zale, Rolf, Universitetslektor
Arbetet presenterades på Rossby Centre, SMHI 2012-04-04 (Engelska).2012-05-292012-04-202012-05-29Bibliographically approved