Impact of climate change on ozone related mortality and morbidity in Europe
2013 (English)In: European Respiratory Journal, ISSN 0903-1936, E-ISSN 1399-3003, Vol. 41, no 2, 285-294 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant formed from precursors in the presence of sunlight, associated with respiratory morbidity and mortality. All else being equal, concentrations of ground-level ozone are expected to increase due to climate change.Ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate are projected using emission scenarios, models and epidemiological data. European ozone concentrations are modelled with MATCH-RCA3 (50×50 km). Projections from two climate models, ECHAM4 and HadCM3, are applied, under greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and A1B respectively. We apply a European-wide exposure-response function to gridded population data and country-specific baseline mortality and morbidity.Comparing the current situation (1990-2009) with the baseline period (1961-1990), the largest increase in ozone-associated mortality and morbidity due to climate change (4-5%) have occurred in Belgium, Ireland, Netherlands and UK. Comparing the baseline period and the future periods (2021-2050 and 2041-2060), much larger increase in ozone-related mortality and morbidity are projected for Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal with the impact being stronger using the climate projection from ECHAM4 (A2). However, in Nordic and Baltic countries the same magnitude of decrease is projected.The current study suggests that projected effects of climate change on ozone concentrations could differentially influence mortality and morbidity across Europe.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 41, no 2, 285-294 p.
environment, hospitalisation, ozone
Environmental Health and Occupational Health
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-58540DOI: 10.1183/09031936.00210411PubMedID: 22743679ScopusID: 000314624200008OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-58540DiVA: diva2:549005