umu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
The opposing effects of climate change and socio-economic development on the global distribution of malaria
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health. (Umeå Centre for Global Health Research)
University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health. Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine. (Umeå Centre for Global Health Research)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4030-0449
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine. Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health. (Umeå Centre for Global Health Research)
Show others and affiliations
2011 (English)In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 21, no 4, 1209-1214 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The current global geographic distribution of malaria results from a complex interaction between climatic and non-climatic factors. Over the past century, socio-economic development and public health measures have contributed to a marked contraction in the distribution of malaria. Previous assessments of the potential impact of global changes on malaria have not quantified the effects of non-climate factors. In this paper, we describe an empirical model of the past, present and future-potential geographic distribution of malaria which incorporates both the effects of climate change and of socio-economic development. A logistic regression model using temperature, precipitation and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) identifies the recent global geographic distribution of malaria with high accuracy (sensitivity 85% and specificity 95%). Empirically, climate factors have a substantial effect on malaria transmission in countries where GDPpc is currently less than US$20,000. Using projections of future climate, GDPpc and population consistent with the IPCC A1B scenario, we estimate the potential future population living in areas where malaria can be transmitted in 2030 and 2050. In 2050, the projected population at risk is approximately 5.2 billion when considering climatic effects only, 1.95 billion when considering the combined effects of GDP and climate, and 1.74 billion when considering GDP effects only. Under the A1B scenario, we project that climate change has much weaker effects on malaria than GDPpc increase. This outcome is, however, dependent on optimistic estimates of continued socioeconomic development. Even then, climate change has important effects on the projected distribution of malaria, leading to an increase of over 200 million in the projected population at risk.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2011. Vol. 21, no 4, 1209-1214 p.
Keyword [en]
Climate change, Malaria, Socioeconomic development, A1B scenario
National Category
Environmental Health and Occupational Health Climate Research Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-61854DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.06.001ISI: 000295666500008OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-61854DiVA: diva2:572375
Available from: 2012-11-29 Created: 2012-11-27 Last updated: 2017-12-07Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Béguin, AndreasRocklöv, JoacimÅström, ChristoferSauerborn, Rainer
By organisation
Epidemiology and Global HealthOccupational and Environmental Medicine
In the same journal
Global Environmental Change
Environmental Health and Occupational HealthClimate ResearchPublic Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and EpidemiologyEnvironmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 164 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf