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A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
2002 (English)In: International Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0169-2070, E-ISSN 1872-8200, Vol. 18, no 1, 19-30 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect mean check-in and the check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables are small. © 2002 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2002. Vol. 18, no 1, 19-30 p.
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Econometrics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-64759DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00104-2OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-64759DiVA: diva2:602699
Available from: 2013-02-02 Created: 2013-02-02 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved

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Brännäs, KurtHellström, Jörgen

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  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
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Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf