A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels
2002 (English)In: International Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0169-2070, Vol. 18, no 1, 19-30 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect mean check-in and the check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables are small. © 2002 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2002. Vol. 18, no 1, 19-30 p.
Research subject Econometrics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-64759DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00104-2OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-64759DiVA: diva2:602699